Our_APPGE government_NN1 has_VHZ made_VVN heavy_JJ investments_NN2 in_II the_AT U.S._NP1 automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 ._. 
How_RRQ should_VM it_PPH1 use_VVI its_APPGE influence_NN1 ?_? 
It_PPH1 is_VBZ a_AT1 difficult_JJ question_NN1 to_TO answer_VVI because_CS it_PPH1 appears_VVZ that_CST the_AT automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 is_VBZ in_II the_AT middle_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 fundamental_JJ transformation_NN1 ._. 
There_EX is_VBZ a_AT1 lot_NN1 of_IO information_NN1 available_JJ on_II how_RRQ companies_NN2 have_VH0 dealt_VVN with_IW major_JJ changes_NN2 in_II their_APPGE business_NN1 environments_NN2 ,_, but_CCB little_DA1 is_VBZ known_VVN about_II the_AT transformation_NN1 of_IO entire_JJ industries_NN2 ._. 
History_NN1 shows_VVZ that_CST most_DAT companies_NN2 do_VD0 not_XX deal_VVI well_RR with_IW transformation_NN1 ._. 
One_MC1 reason_NN1 has_VHZ to_TO do_VDI with_IW senior_JJ managers_NN2 ._. 
They_PPHS2 usually_RR "_" do_VD0 n't_XX get_VVI it_PPH1 ._. "_" 
They_PPHS2 have_VH0 a_AT1 difficult_JJ time_NNT1 accepting_VVG that_CST the_AT future_NN1 will_VM be_VBI vastly_RR different_JJ from_II the_AT present_NN1 because_CS they_PPHS2 rose_VVD to_II power_NN1 in_II the_AT old_JJ business_NN1 environment_NN1 and_CC did_VDD n't_XX acquire_VVI skills_NN2 necessary_JJ to_TO operate_VVI in_II the_AT new_JJ ._. 
It_PPH1 is_VBZ also_RR hard_JJ for_IF managers_NN2 to_TO distinguish_VVI between_II an_AT1 erosion_NN1 in_II a_AT1 company_NN1 's_GE competitive_JJ position_NN1 and_CC a_AT1 change_NN1 in_II the_AT fundamental_JJ nature_NN1 of_IO an_AT1 industry_NN1 ._. 
Knowing_VVG the_AT difference_NN1 is_VBZ one_MC1 of_IO the_AT most_RGT difficult_JJ things_NN2 to_TO do_VDI ,_, even_CS21 though_CS22 it_PPH1 is_VBZ among_II the_AT most_RGT important_JJ ._. 
The_AT transformation_NN1 of_IO an_AT1 entire_JJ industry_NN1 does_VDZ not_XX happen_VVI very_RG often_RR ._. 
It_PPH1 only_RR occurs_VVZ when_RRQ a_AT1 number_NN1 of_IO factors_NN2 align_VV0 ,_, such_II21 as_II22 a_AT1 change_NN1 in_II consumer_NN1 demand_NN1 ,_, a_AT1 shift_NN1 of_IO parts_NN2 of_IO the_AT major_JJ supply_NN1 chain_NN1 from_II one_MC1 country_NN1 to_II another_DD1 ,_, and_CC the_AT emergence_NN1 of_IO key_JJ technological_JJ changes_NN2 ._. 
This_DD1 is_VBZ what_DDQ happened_VVD in_II the_AT computer_NN1 industry_NN1 in_II the_AT 1980s_MC2 and_CC '90s._FO previously_RR ,_, each_DD1 company_NN1 produced_VVD its_APPGE own_DA mainframe_NN1 computers_NN2 using_VVG proprietary_JJ hardware_NN1 and_CC software_NN1 ._. 
The_AT company_NN1 's_GE sales_NN force_VV0 then_RT sold_VVD these_DD2 complex_JJ and_CC expensive_JJ products_NN2 ._. 
The_AT PC_NN1 changed_VVD this_DD1 ._. 
In_II a_AT1 period_NN1 of_IO just_RR a_AT1 few_DA2 years_NNT2 ,_, the_AT industry_NN1 was_VBDZ pulled_VVN apart_RL and_CC reassembled_VVN ._. 
The_AT entire_JJ industry_NN1 began_VVD to_TO rely_VVI on_II common_JJ hardware_NN1 elements_NN2 (_( microprocessors_NN2 )_) and_CC packaged_JJ software_NN1 ;_; selling_NN1 was_VBDZ handed_VVN off_RP to_II third_MD parties_NN2 ._. 
In_II business_NN1 we_PPIS2 call_VV0 this_DD1 moving_VVG from_II a_AT1 "_" vertical_JJ "_" structure_NN1 (_( where_CS a_AT1 company_NN1 handles_VVZ its_APPGE own_DA development_NN1 ,_, manufacturing_NN1 and_CC distribution_NN1 )_) to_II a_AT1 "_" horizontal_JJ "_" structure_NN1 (_( where_CS some_DD companies_NN2 specialize_VV0 in_II building_NN1 components_NN2 while_CS others_NN2 integrate_VV0 them_PPHO2 and_CC handle_VV0 distribution_NN1 tasks_NN2 )_) ._. 
The_AT result_NN1 was_VBDZ that_CST the_AT computer_NN1 industry_NN1 became_VVD more_RGR dynamic_JJ as_CSA old_JJ participants_NN2 (_( such_II21 as_II22 Burroughs_NP1 and_CC Digital_JJ Equipment_NN1 )_) faded_VVD away_RL and_CC new_JJ types_NN2 of_IO companies_NN2 (_( such_II21 as_II22 Compaq_NP1 and_CC Dell_NP1 )_) emerged_VVD ._. 
Typically_RR ,_, a_AT1 single_JJ company_NN1 can_VM not_XX call_VVI the_AT shots_NN2 that_CST transform_VV0 an_AT1 industry_NN1 ._. 
But_CCB when_CS a_AT1 government_NN1 gets_VVZ as_RG involved_JJ as_CSA ours_PPGE has_VHZ in_II the_AT U.S._NP1 automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 ,_, it_PPH1 can_VM end_VVI up_RP making_VVG transformational_JJ decisions_NN2 ._. 
Imagine_VV0 if_CS in_II the_AT middle_NN1 of_IO the_AT computer_NN1 transformation_NN1 the_AT Reagan_NP1 administration_NN1 worried_VVN about_II the_AT upheaval_NN1 and_CC tried_VVN to_TO rescue_VVI this_DD1 vital_JJ industry_NN1 by_II making_VVG huge_JJ investments_NN2 in_II leading_JJ mainframe_NN1 companies_NN2 ._. 
The_AT purpose_NN1 of_IO such_DA investments_NN2 would_VM have_VHI been_VBN to_TO protect_VVI the_AT viability_NN1 of_IO these_DD2 companies_NN2 ._. 
The_AT effect_NN1 ,_, however_RR ,_, would_VM have_VHI been_VBN to_TO put_VVI the_AT brakes_NN2 on_II transformation_NN1 and_CC all_RR21 but_RR22 ensure_VV0 that_CST the_AT U.S._NP1 would_VM lose_VVI its_APPGE leadership_NN1 role_NN1 ._. 
The_AT government_NN1 's_GE investment_NN1 in_II General_JJ Motors_NN2 might_VM be_VBI directly_RR helpful_JJ if_CS the_AT auto_NN1 industry_NN1 only_RR had_VHD the_AT recession_NN1 to_TO contend_VVI with_IW ._. 
But_CCB that_DD1 is_VBZ not_XX the_AT case_NN1 ._. 
The_AT industry_NN1 faces_VVZ the_AT confluence_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 world-wide_JJ recession_NN1 ,_, rising_VVG fuel_NN1 prices_NN2 ,_, environmental_JJ demands_NN2 ,_, globalization_NN1 of_IO manufacturing_NN1 ,_, and_CC ,_, most_RGT importantly_RR ,_, technological_JJ change_NN1 involving_VVG the_AT very_JJ nature_NN1 of_IO the_AT automobile_NN1 ._. 
Electric_JJ cars_NN2 have_VH0 become_VVN viable_JJ and_CC will_VM likely_RR only_RR become_VVI more_RGR capable_JJ in_II the_AT future_NN1 ._. 
Components_NN2 critical_JJ to_II their_APPGE performance_NN1 --_NN1 batteries_NN2 and_CC electronic_JJ control_NN1 systems_NN2 --_NN1 are_VBR on_II a_AT1 rapidly_RR rising_VVG technology_NN1 curve_NN1 ._. 
These_DD2 technologies_NN2 are_VBR new_JJ and_CC therefore_RR capable_JJ of_IO improving_VVG quickly_RR with_IW incremental_JJ investments_NN2 ._. 
By_II contrast_NN1 ,_, technologies_NN2 that_CST have_VH0 been_VBN around_II a_AT1 long_JJ time_NNT1 ,_, such_II21 as_II22 the_AT internal_JJ combustion_NN1 engine_NN1 and_CC the_AT fuel_NN1 and_CC drive_VV0 systems_NN2 built_VVN around_II it_PPH1 ,_, have_VH0 enjoyed_VVN the_AT benefits_NN2 of_IO decades_NNT2 of_IO development_NN1 and_CC have_VH0 limited_VVN potential_JJ for_IF further_JJR improvement_NN1 ._. 
The_AT result_NN1 is_VBZ that_CST there_EX are_VBR several_DA2 factors_NN2 aligning_VVG to_TO bring_VVI about_RP a_AT1 change_NN1 in_II the_AT structure_NN1 of_IO the_AT automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 ._. 
Electric_JJ cars_NN2 may_VM match_VVI the_AT needs_NN2 of_IO our_APPGE time_NNT1 better_RRR and_CC become_VV0 more_RGR desirable_JJ than_CSN cars_NN2 relying_VVG on_II the_AT internal_JJ combustion_NN1 engine_NN1 ._. 
The_AT car_NN1 industry_NN1 today_RT is_VBZ as_RG vertical_JJ as_CSA the_AT computer_NN1 industry_NN1 was_VBDZ before_II the_AT PC_NN1 ._. 
However_RR ,_, the_AT simplicity_NN1 of_IO the_AT electric_JJ car_NN1 combined_VVN with_IW the_AT standardization_NN1 of_IO certain_JJ components_NN2 may_VM cause_VVI the_AT automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 to_TO shift_VVI to_II a_AT1 horizontal_JJ structure_NN1 ._. 
The_AT Internet_NN1 is_VBZ already_RR emerging_VVG as_II a_AT1 key_JJ marketing_NN1 medium_NN1 ofr_NN1 automobiles_NN2 and_CC is_VBZ easily_RR adaptable_JJ to_II a_AT1 horizontal_JJ structure_NN1 ._. 
If_CS such_DA a_AT1 shift_NN1 occurs_VVZ ,_, the_AT success_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 producer_NN1 will_VM depend_VVI on_II how_RGQ well_RR it_PPH1 takes_VVZ advantage_NN1 of_IO the_AT new_JJ structure_NN1 --_NN1 whether_CSW it_PPH1 can_VM use_VVI the_AT mass-producibility_NN1 and_CC falling_VVG cost_NN1 of_IO batteries_NN2 and_CC other_JJ components_NN2 better_RRR than_CSN its_APPGE competitors_NN2 ._. 
The_AT U.S._NP1 government_NN1 is_VBZ investing_VVG in_II the_AT automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 with_IW the_AT intention_NN1 of_IO preventing_VVG jobs_NN2 from_II being_VBG lost_VVN ._. 
This_DD1 may_VM improve_VVI GM_NP1 's_GE ability_NN1 to_TO operate_VVI within_RL today_RT 's_GE structure_NN1 ._. 
But_CCB there_EX is_VBZ no_AT comparably_RR large_JJ investment_NN1 being_VBG made_VVN to_TO develop_VVI the_AT capabilities_NN2 that_CST could_VM serve_VVI the_AT company_NN1 in_II a_AT1 new_JJ era_NN1 of_IO electric_JJ cars_NN2 ._. 
China_NP1 appears_VVZ to_TO be_VBI making_VVG a_AT1 different_JJ bet_NN1 ._. 
It_PPH1 's_VBZ not_XX clear_RR precisely_RR how_RRQ the_AT Chinese_JJ government_NN1 influences_VVZ industrial_JJ strategy_NN1 ._. 
But_CCB China_NP1 is_VBZ putting_VVG a_RR31 great_RR32 deal_RR33 f_ZZ1 effort_NN1 into_II developing_VVG and_CC manufacturing_NN1 batteries_NN2 ._. 
Essentially_RR ,_, it_PPH1 is_VBZ betting_VVG that_CST it_PPH1 can_VM take_VVI the_AT lead_NN1 in_II creating_VVG the_AT foundation_NN1 technology_NN1 of_IO what_DDQ will_VM likely_RR be_VBI the_AT new_JJ structure_NN1 of_IO the_AT auto_NN1 industry_NN1 ._. 
Which_DDQ is_VBZ the_AT better_JJR investment_NN1 strategy_NN1 ?_? 
It_PPH1 is_VBZ too_RG early_JJ to_TO say_VVI ._. 
In_II the_AT short_JJ term_NN1 ,_, the_AT U.S._NP1 strategy_NN1 will_VM likely_RR save_VVI jobs_NN2 ._. 
The_AT long_JJ term_NN1 is_VBZ much_RR more_RGR problematic_JJ ._. 
We_PPIS2 do_VD0 not_XX yet_RR know_VVI when_RRQ and_CC if_CS the_AT automobile_NN1 industry_NN1 will_VM shift_VVI into_II a_AT1 horizontal_JJ structure_NN1 ._. 
The_AT stakes_NN2 ,_, however_RR ,_, are_VBR very_RG high_JJ ._. 
The_AT strategic_JJ bets_NN2 being_VBG placed_VVN by_II each_DD1 country_NN1 may_VM determine_VVI which_DDQ one_PN1 will_VM end_VVI up_RP as_II the_AT world_NN1 's_GE leader_NN1 in_II automotive_JJ technology_NN1 and_CC manufacturing_NN1 ._. 
