Hicks_NP1 ,_, Hayek_NP1 ,_, Hotelling_NP1 ,_, Hubbert_NP1 ,_, and_CC Hysteria_NN1 or_CC Energy_NN1 ,_, Exhaustion_NN1 ,_, Environmentalism_NN1 ,_, and_CC Etatism_NN1 in_II the_AT 21st_MD Century_NNT1 1_MC1 ._. 
INTRODUCTION_NN1 Having_VHG the_AT rare_JJ honor_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 second_NNT1 IAEE_NP1 award_NN1 ,_, I_PPIS1 chose_VVD to_TO respond_VVI by_II reacting_VVG to_II the_AT present_JJ deplorable_JJ state_NN1 of_IO political_JJ discourse_NN1 on_II energy_NN1 by_II revisiting_VVG the_AT issues_NN2 that_CST I_PPIS1 treated_VVD in_II my_APPGE paper_NN1 (_( Gordon_NP1 1993_MC )_) for_IF the_AT prior_JJ award_NN1 ._. 
The_AT theme_NN1 here_RL is_VBZ that_CST while_CS the_AT underlying_JJ theory_NN1 and_CC reality_NN1 are_VBR unchanged_JJ since_II 1993_MC ,_, the_AT politics_NN1 have_VH0 degenerated_VVN drastically_RR ._. 
1993_MC in_II retrospect_NN1 was_VBDZ the_AT middle_NN1 of_IO an_AT1 un-_FU usually_RR favorable_JJ political_JJ climate_NN1 ._. 
At_RR21 least_RR22 since_II September_NPM1 11_MC ,_, 2001_MC ,_, politicians_NN2 have_VH0 resumed_VVN their_APPGE usual_JJ ineptitude_NN1 about_II intervention_NN1 ,_, a_AT1 problem_NN1 that_CST extends_VVZ far_RR beyond_II energy_NN1 ._. 
Several_DA2 efforts_NN2 from_II purportedly_RR dispassionate_JJ study_NN1 groups_NN2 have_VH0 supported_VVN these_DD2 errors_NN2 ._. 
To_TO make_VVI matters_NN2 worse_JJR ,_, some_DD have_VH0 argued_VVN with_IW total_JJ disregard_NN1 of_IO economic_JJ reality_NN1 that_CST President_NNB Garter_NP1 's_GE disastrous_JJ policies_NN2 should_VM have_VHI continued_VVN to_TO prevent_VVI the_AT present_JJ problems_NN2 ._. 
These_DD2 errors_NN2 need_VV0 response_NN1 ,_, and_CC this_DD1 article_NN1 tries_VVZ to_TO provide_VVI such_DA a_AT1 critique_NN1 ._. 
In_II energy_NN1 ,_, error_NN1 has_VHZ involved_VVN reviving_VVG and_CC ridiculously_RR extending_VVG Nixon_NP1 's_GE idea_NN1 of_IO energy_NN1 independence_NN1 ._. 
To_II Nixon_NP1 's_GE earlier_JJR error_NN1 of_IO adopting_VVG independence_NN1 to_TO avoid_VVI energy_NN1 shocks_NN2 ,_, twenty-first-century_JJ politicians_NN2 have_VH0 added_VVN the_AT idea_NN1 that_CST independence_NN1 will_VM also_RR solve_VVI problems_NN2 of_IO depletion_NN1 ,_, high_JJ energy_NN1 prices_NN2 ,_, and_CC global_JJ warming_NN1 ._. 
A_AT1 nice_JJ coincidence_NN1 here_RL is_VBZ that_CST the_AT man_NN1 who_PNQS killed_VVD the_AT first_MD energy-independence_JJ idea_NN1 ._. 
Bill_NP1 (_( William_NP1 W._NP1 )_) Hogan_NP1 ,_, recruited_VVD me_PPIO1 into_II what_DDQ has_VHZ been_VBN an_AT1 extended_JJ term_NN1 as_CSA book-review_JJ editor_NN1 for_IF The_AT Energy_NN1 Journal_NN1 ._. 
Bill_NP1 's_GE team_NN1 of_IO modelers_NN2 (_( U.S._NP1 Federal_JJ Energy_NN1 Administration_NN1 1974_MC )_) well_RR quantified_VVN the_AT reality_NN1 that_CST energy_NN1 independence_NN1 then_RT made_VVD no_AT sense_NN1 ;_; nothing_PN1 has_VHZ changed_VVN this_DD1 reality_NN1 ._. 
A_AT1 central_JJ element_NN1 of_IO the_AT 1974_MC work_NN1 was_VBDZ uncovering_VVG the_AT difficulties_NN2 of_IO rapidly_RR changing_VVG energy-supply_JJ patterns_NN2 ._. 
The_AT key_NN1 remains_VVZ that_DD1 oil_NN1 is_VBZ mainly_RR a_AT1 transportation_NN1 fuel_NN1 and_CC oil-based_JJ transportation_NN1 greatly_RR improves_VVZ welfare_NN1 ._. 
This_DD1 is_VBZ increasingly_RR true_JJ despite_II the_AT political_JJ postures_NN2 that_CST major_JJ changes_NN2 in_II transportation_NN1 and_CC its_APPGE fuel_NN1 use_NN1 are_VBR easily_RR and_CC quickly_RR implementable_JJ ._. 
The_AT extensions_NN2 suffer_VV0 from_II a_AT1 similar_JJ unrealism_NN1 and_CC the_AT inappropriateness_NN1 of_IO energy_NN1 independence_NN1 in_II dealing_VVG with_IW these_DD2 further_JJR problems_NN2 ._. 
Glearly_RR ,_, renouncing_VVG foreign_JJ supply_NN1 sources_NN2 will_VM not_XX alleviate_VVI the_AT alleged_JJ peak-oil_JJ problem_NN1 ._. 
At_RR21 best_RR22 ,_, it_PPH1 is_VBZ a_AT1 coincidence_NN1 that_CST some_DD responses_NN2 to_II global_JJ warming_NN1 involve_VV0 purely_RR domestic_JJ energy_NN1 sources_NN2 ._. 
Others_NN2 such_II21 as_II22 nuclear_JJ and_CC natural_JJ gas_NN1 do_VD0 not_XX ._. 
As_CSA in_II my_APPGE earlier_JJR effort_NN1 ,_, I_PPIS1 concentrate_VV0 on_II the_AT economics_NN1 of_IO exhaustible_JJ resources_NN2 ._. 
This_DD1 stress_NN1 arises_VVZ from_II both_DB2 the_AT depletion_NN1 fears_VVZ that_CST poison_VV0 political_JJ debates_NN2 and_CC the_AT persistence_NN1 of_IO concerns_NN2 among_II economists_NN2 about_II the_AT complete-_JJ ness_NN1 and_CC relevance_NN1 of_IO exhaustion_NN1 theory_NN1 ._. 
I_PPIS1 reiterate_VV0 and_CC try_VV0 to_TO strengthen_VVI my_APPGE earlier_JJR arguments_NN2 that_CST we_PPIS2 have_VH0 all_DB the_AT theory_NN1 we_PPIS2 need_VV0 and_CC that_DD1 then_RT the_AT question_NN1 is_VBZ which_DDQ model_VV0 best_RRT fits_VVZ the_AT facts_NN2 ._. 
The_AT problem_NN1 then_RT is_VBZ not_XX the_AT theory_NN1 ,_, but_CCB the_AT version_NN1 considered_VVD empirically_RR relevant_JJ ._. 
In_RR21 particular_RR22 ,_, peak_NN1 energy_NN1 is_VBZ no_AT more_RGR valid_JJ today_RT than_CSN in_II the_AT past_NN1 ;_; the_AT bizarre_JJ National_JJ Petroleum_NN1 Gouncil_NP1 (_( 2007_MC )_) effort_NN1 to_TO develop_VVI an_AT1 alternative_JJ rationale_NN1 for_IF intervention-problems_NN2 of_IO financing_VVG energy_NN1 development-_NN1 for_IF current_JJ interventionist_JJ tendencies_NN2 is_VBZ a_AT1 worse_JJR foundation_NN1 ._. 
I_PPIS1 begin_VV0 with_IW general_JJ observations_NN2 about_II the_AT role_NN1 of_IO economic_JJ analysis_NN1 ,_, turn_VV0 to_II exhaustion_NN1 theory_NN1 and_CC its_APPGE implications_NN2 ,_, restate_VV0 my_APPGE views_NN2 on_II energy_NN1 in-_NN1 dependence_NN1 as_CSA traditionally_RR defined_VVN and_CC justified_JJ ,_, add_VV0 comments_NN2 on_II energy-consumption_JJ mandates_NN2 ,_, and_CC make_VV0 skeptical_JJ remarks_NN2 about_II environmentalism_NN1 ._. 
The_AT current_JJ hysteria_NN1 about_II all_DB economic_JJ problems_NN2 strengthens_VVZ belief_NN1 in_II the_AT practical_JJ value_NN1 of_IO economics_NN1 ._. 
Economics_NN1 has_VHZ clarified_VVN many_DA2 important_JJ issues_NN2 ,_, indeed_RR undoubtedly_RR every_AT1 one_PN1 to_II which_DDQ it_PPH1 has_VHZ been_VBN applied_VVN ._. 
Economics_NN1 has_VHZ even_RR developed_VVN sound_NN1 economics_NN1 analyses_NN2 of_IO why_RRQ the_AT good_JJ advice_NN1 is_VBZ ignored_VVN ._. 
A_AT1 vast_JJ rent-seeking_JJ literature_NN1 explores_VVZ why_RRQ vote_NN1 seeking_NN1 leads_VVZ to_II implementing_VVG policies_NN2 that_CST transfer_VV0 money_NN1 from_II large_JJ groups_NN2 to_II small_JJ ones_NN2 ._. 
The_AT former_DA then_RT have_VH0 lower_JJR unit_NN1 costs_VVZ that_CST they_PPHS2 ignore_VV0 while_CS the_AT latter_DA have_VH0 high_JJ unit_NN1 benefits_NN2 that_CST win_VV0 their_APPGE votes_NN2 ._. 
Usually_RR ,_, a_AT1 deadweight_NN1 loss_NN1 also_RR arises_VVZ ._. 
What_DDQ is_VBZ critical_JJ here_RL ,_, however_RR ,_, is_VBZ that_DD1 economic_JJ observations_NN2 about_II en-_JJ ergy_NN1 are_VBR among_II the_AT greatest_JJT triumphs_NN2 ._. 
The_AT insights_NN2 then_RT are_VBR what_DDQ are_VBR stressed_VVN and_CC applied_VVN here_RL ._. 
Hicks-Samuelson_JJ general-equilibrium_JJ theory_NN1 properly_RR applied_JJ leads_NN2 to_II strongly_RR free-market_NN1 conclusions_NN2 ._. 
Energy_NN1 is_VBZ a_AT1 prime_JJ example_NN1 ._. 
As_CSA I_PPIS1 argued_VVD in_II 1993_MC ,_, whatever_DDQV their_APPGE views_NN2 on_II ideology_NN1 ,_, energy_NN1 economists_NN2 have_VH0 necessarily_RR stressed_VVN the_AT defects_NN2 of_IO intervention_NN1 because_CS failure_NN1 is_VBZ all_DB that_DD1 arises._NNU 2_MC ,_, EXHAUSTIBLE-RESOURCE_JJ ECONOMICS_NN1 RECONSIDERED_VVD My_APPGE initial_JJ thoughts_NN2 about_II why_RRQ questions_NN2 continue_VV0 to_TO arise_VVI about_II exhaust-_JJ ible-resource_JJ theory_NN1 were_VBDR that_RG both_RR what_DDQ constitutes_VVZ a_AT1 good_JJ theory_NN1 and_CC what_DDQ is_VBZ included_VVN in_II exhaustible_JJ resource_NN1 theory_NN1 are_VBR at_II issue_NN1 ._. 
The_AT first_MD question_NN1 seems_VVZ ,_, on_II reflection_NN1 on_II the_AT second_NNT1 ,_, much_RR less_RGR interesting_JJ ._. 
Exhaustible-resource_JJ theory_NN1 ,_, properly_RR delineated_VVD ,_, is_VBZ actually_RR too_RG rich_JJ ;_; it_PPH1 covers_VVZ all_DB the_AT relevant_JJ possibilities_NN2 ._. 
This_DD1 is_VBZ normal_JJ in_II economics_NN1 ._. 
Relentless_JJ theorizing_NN1 leads_VVZ to_II covering_VVG all_DB the_AT logical_JJ possibilities_NN2 and_CC thus_RR to_II the_AT conclusion_NN1 that_CST the_AT outcome_NN1 depends_VVZ on_II the_AT circumstances_NN2 ._. 
Informed_JJ examination_NN1 of_IO reality_NN1 is_VBZ needed_VVN to_TO determine_VVI which_DDQ possibility_NN1 applies_VVZ ._. 
Thus_RR ,_, the_AT theory_NN1 has_VHZ largely_RR done_VDN all_RR it_PPH1 can_VM ._. 
Application_NN1 must_VM take_VVI over_RP and_CC has_VHZ done_VDN so_RR ._. 
The_AT biggest_JJT problem_NN1 is_VBZ the_AT failure_NN1 by_II too_RG many_DA2 to_TO choose_VVI the_AT model_NN1 most_RGT reflective_JJ of_IO reality_NN1 ._. 
By_RT21 now_RT22 ,_, it_PPH1 should_VM be_VBI ,_, but_CCB is_VBZ not_XX ,_, recognized_VVD that_CST the_AT core_NN1 of_IO modem_NN1 exhaustible-resource_NN1 economics_NN1 is_VBZ the_AT Hotelling-Grey-Cummings_NP1 generalized_JJ model_NN1 of_IO depletion_NN1 ._. 
In_II this_DD1 model_NN1 ,_, we_PPIS2 have_VH0 a_AT1 downward_JJ sloping_JJ demand_NN1 curve_NN1 ,_, increasing_VVG costs_NN2 of_IO the_AT rate_NN1 of_IO production_NN1 ,_, and_CC increasing_JJ costs_NN2 of_IO cumulative_JJ production_NN1 ._. 
Current_JJ output_NN1 is_VBZ curtailed_VVN to_TO benefit_VVI from_II both_RR (_( 1_MC1 )_) a_AT1 rise_NN1 in_II the_AT gap_NN1 between_II price_NN1 and_CC marginal_JJ cost_NN1 (_( marginal_JJ profits_NN2 )_) to_TO induce_VVI hoarding_VVG and_CC (_( 2_MC )_) the_AT cumulative_JJ present_JJ value_NN1 of_IO the_AT cost_NN1 savings_NN2 from_II reducing_VVG cumulative_JJ production_NN1 ._. 
Hotelling_NP1 (_( 1931_MC )_) presented_VVD but_CCB did_VDD little_DA1 with_IW this_DD1 general_JJ model_NN1 ,_, I_PPIS1 tried_VVD to_TO extend_VVI (_( 1967_MC )_) but_CCB only_RR managed_VVN to_TO deduce_VVI that_CST the_AT response_NN1 to_II depletion_NN1 of_IO lower-cost_JJ resources_NN2 supplemented_VVD the_AT pure_JJ hoarding_NN1 effect_NN1 and_CC made_VVD the_AT latter_DA 's_GE required_JJ contribution_NN1 smaller_JJR than_CSN in_II cases_NN2 ignoring_VVG heterogeneity_NN1 ._. 
Cummings_NP1 (_( 1969_MC )_) ,_, as_CS31 far_CS32 as_CS33 I_PPIS1 am_VBM aware_JJ ,_, was_VBDZ the_AT first_MD to_TO recognize_VVI that_CST an_AT1 extension_NN1 of_IO Hotelling_NP1 's_GE analysis_NN1 produced_VVD a_AT1 more_RGR meaningful_JJ expression_NN1 of_IO the_AT optimality_NN1 condition_NN1 ,_, Both_DB2 derivations_NN2 make_VV0 profits_NN2 a_AT1 function_NN1 of_IO cumulative_JJ output_NN1 and_CC its_APPGE derivative_NN1 ,_, current_JJ output_NN1 ._. 
However_RR ,_, Cummings_NP1 transforms_VVZ the_AT optimality_NN1 condition_NN1 into_II the_AT form_NN1 previously_RR indicated_VVN ._. 
Baumol_NP1 and_CC Oates_NP1 (_( 1975_MC )_) and_CC later_JJR Modiano_NN1 and_CC Shapiro_NP1 (_( 1980_MC )_) showed_VVD that_CST a_AT1 shift_NN1 to_II discrete-time_JJ analysis_NN1 vastly_RR simplifies_VVZ the_AT derivation_NN1 ._. 
Despite_II all_DB these_DD2 contributions_NN2 ,_, too_RG much_DA1 of_IO the_AT literature_NN1 still_RR emphasizes_VVZ less_RGR general_JJ cases_NN2 ._. 
The_AT general_JJ model_NN1 ,_, as_CSA should_VM be_VBI expected_VVN ,_, is_VBZ less_RGR tractable_JJ than_CSN the_AT more_RGR popular_JJ models_NN2 ._. 
As_CSA I_PPIS1 have_VH0 often_RR put_VVN it_PPH1 ,_, the_AT r_ZZ1 percent_NNU rule_NN1 degenerates_VVZ from_II an_AT1 observation_NN1 about_II a_AT1 potentially_RR observable_JJ measure_NN1 to_II the_AT standard_JJ general_JJ proposition_NN1 that_CST something_PN1 is_VBZ not_XX an_AT1 asset_NN1 unless_CS it_PPH1 earns_VVZ the_AT market_NN1 rate_NN1 of_IO interest_NN1 ._. 
This_DD1 contrasts_VVZ to_II the_AT limiting_JJ case_NN1 of_IO an_AT1 already_RR produced_VVN product_NN1 being_VBG traded_VVN by_II speculators_NN2 ._. 
(_( This_DD1 is_VBZ related_VVN to_II the_AT hardtack_NN1 hoarding_VVG in_II Fisher_NP1 's_GE Theory_NN1 of_IO Interest_NN1 but_CCB was_VBDZ most_RGT formally_RR developed_VVN by_II Samuelson_NP1 (_( 1957_MC )_) ._. )_) 
Here_RL the_AT price_NN1 rises_VVZ at_II r_ZZ1 percent_NNU ._. 
As_CSA we_PPIS2 depart_VV0 from_II this_DD1 case_NN1 ,_, what_DDQ rises_VVZ from_II what_DDQ cause_NN1 becomes_VVZ more_RGR complex_JJ ._. 
In_II Hotelling_NP1 's_GE initial_JJ case_NN1 of_IO constant_JJ costs_NN2 ,_, it_PPH1 is_VBZ the_AT gap_NN1 between_II price_NN1 and_CC average_JJ cost_NN1 ;_; simply_RR adding_VVG Grey_NP1 's_GE earlier_JJR (_( 1914_MC )_) assumption_NN1 of_IO increasing_JJ marginal_JJ costs_NN2 means_VVZ that_CST it_PPH1 is_VBZ marginal_JJ profits_NN2 that_CST rise_VV0 ;_; falling_VVG marginal_JJ costs_NN2 contribute_VV0 part_NN1 of_IO the_AT r_ZZ1 percent_NNU rise_NN1 ._. 
Then_RT adding_VVG heterogeneity_NN1 means_VVZ that_CST the_AT gains_NN2 from_II retarding_VVG depletion_NN1 of_IO high-quality_JJ resources_NN2 lessen_VV0 the_AT need_NN1 to_TO raise_VVI prices_NN2 and_CC lower_VVI the_AT marginal_JJ costs_NN2 of_IO the_AT rate_NN1 of_IO production_NN1 ._. 
However_RR ,_, far_RR too_RG many_DA2 writings_NN2 on_II exhaustible_JJ resources_NN2 ignore_VV0 resource_NN1 heterogeneity_NN1 or_CC even_RR increasing_JJ costs_NN2 to_II the_AT rate_NN1 of_IO output_NN1 ._. 
A_AT1 critical_JJ further_RRR failing_VVG of_IO the_AT literature_NN1 is_VBZ to_TO neglect_VVI the_AT many_DA2 possible_JJ subcases_NN2 that_CST might_VM apply_VVI and_CC thus_RR to_TO fail_VVI to_TO choose_VVI sensibly_RR among_II them_PPHO2 ._. 
Among_II the_AT possible_JJ differences_NN2 to_TO consider_VVI are_VBR the_AT shape_NN1 of_IO the_AT cost_NN1 curves_NN2 ,_, the_AT time_NNT1 shifts_VVZ in_II costs_NN2 and_CC demand_NN1 ,_, and_CC the_AT degree_NN1 of_IO substitutability_NN1 among_II resources_NN2 ._. 
Time_NNT1 shifts_NN2 wreak_VV0 further_JJR havoc_NN1 on_II simple_JJ r_ZZ1 percent_NNU rules_NN2 ._. 
Neither_RR continual_JJ output_NN1 falls_NN2 nor_CC price_NN1 rises_NN2 are_VBR inevitable_JJ ._. 
Thus_RR ,_, with_IW homogeneous_JJ resources_NN2 ,_, if_CS demand_NN1 increases_VVZ so_RG much_DA1 that_CST the_AT marginal_JJ profitability_NN1 of_IO prior-period_JJ output_NN1 rises_VVZ by_II more_DAR than_CSN r_ZZ1 percent_NNU ,_, output_NN1 must_VM be_VBI raised_VVN to_TO lessen_VVI the_AT price_NN1 rise_NN1 and_CC marginal_JJ cost_NN1 decline_VV0 so_RG marginal_JJ profits_NN2 only_RR rise_VV0 r_ZZ1 percent_NNU ._. 
(_( With_IW heterogeneity_NN1 ,_, the_AT demand_NN1 increase_NN1 leading_VVG to_II higher_JJR output_NN1 would_VM be_VBI less_DAR than_CSN r_ZZ1 percent_NNU ._. )_) 
If_CS the_AT more-than-r-percent_JJ rise_NN1 of_IO marginal_JJ profitability_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 constant_JJ output_NN1 is_VBZ due_JJ entirely_RR to_TO cost_VVI decreases_NN2 ,_, prices_NN2 will_VM fall_VVI to_TO limit_VVI the_AT gain_NN1 to_II r_ZZ1 percent_NNU ._. 
This_DD1 then_RT is_VBZ why_RRQ that_DD1 the_AT pattern_NN1 of_IO rising_VVG output_NN1 and_CC falling_VVG prices_NN2 stressed_VVN in_II standard_JJ models_NN2 can_VM be_VBI avoidable_JJ ._. 
However_RR ,_, perpetual_JJ greater-than-r-percent_JJ rises_NN2 in_II profitability_NN1 is_VBZ inconsistent_JJ with_IW any_DD extraction_NN1 ._. 
The_AT infamously_RR paradoxical_JJ concept_NN1 of_IO a_AT1 commodity_NN1 that_CST is_VBZ always_RR traded_VVN and_CC never_RR utilized_VVN would_VM apply_VVI ._. 
Thus_RR ,_, for_IF a_AT1 produced_JJ re-_JJ source_NN1 ,_, growth_NN1 declines_VVZ ,_, price_NN1 rises_NN2 ,_, and_CC output_NN1 falls_NN2 will_VM emerge_VVI eventually_RR ._. 
Re-_JJ source_NN1 optimists_NN2 then_RT can_VM not_XX base_VVI their_APPGE conclusions_NN2 solely_RR on_II the_AT current_JJ absence_NN1 of_IO output_NN1 declines_VVZ and_CC price_NN1 rises_NN2 ._. 
Fortunately_RR ,_, this_DD1 error_NN1 has_VHZ not_XX arisen_VVN ._. 
The_AT theory_NN1 has_VHZ ignored_VVN substitutability_NN1 among_II goods_NN2 ._. 
However_RR ,_, Chakravorty_NP1 ,_, Moreaux_NP1 ,_, and_CC Tidball_NP1 (_( 2008_MC )_) dealt_VVD with_IW a_AT1 special_JJ ,_, deliberately_RR oversimplified_JJ case_NN1 of_IO substitution_NN1 ._. 
The_AT paper_NN1 treats_VVZ two_MC resources_NN2 ,_, coal_NN1 and_CC natural_JJ gas_NN1 ,_, that_CST in_II the_AT model_NN1 differ_VV0 only_RR in_II their_APPGE pollution_NN1 effects_NN2 ._. 
Both_DB2 are_VBR perfect_JJ substitutes_NN2 and_CC have_VH0 zero_MC costs_NN2 of_IO production_NN1 ._. 
The_AT simplifications_NN2 help_VV0 to_TO unveil_VVI new_JJ issues_NN2 raised_VVN by_II even_RR the_AT very_RG limited_JJ aspects_NN2 of_IO heterogeneity_NN1 treated_VVN ._. 
The_AT complete_JJ theory_NN1 suggests_VVZ two_MC or_CC three_MC basic_JJ types_NN2 of_IO possible_JJ out-_NN1 comes_VVZ ._. 
Most_DAT attention_NN1 is_VBZ given_VVN to_II the_AT case_NN1 in_II which_DDQ the_AT stock_NN1 is_VBZ depleted_VVN ._. 
This_DD1 case_NN1 is_VBZ beloved_JJ by_II theorists_NN2 because_CS they_PPHS2 can_VM do_VDI more_RRR with_IW it_PPH1 ._. 
This_DD1 and_CC the_AT grip_NN1 held_VVN by_II resource_NN1 pessimism_NN1 has_VHZ caused_VVN too_RG many_DA2 to_TO resist_VVI alternative_JJ views_NN2 that_CST may_VM be_VBI more_RGR realistic_JJ ._. 
Levhari_NN2 and_CC Liviatan_NP1 (_( 1977_MC )_) suggest_VV0 the_AT alternative_NN1 that_CST all_DB that_DD1 occurs_VVZ is_VBZ an_AT1 effort_NN1 to_TO delay_VVI depletion_NN1 ._. 
A_AT1 long_JJ effort_NN1 that_CST starts_VVZ with_IW Bamett_NP1 and_CC Morse_NP1 (_( 1963_MC )_) goes_VVZ further_RRR and_CC suggests_VVZ that_CST ,_, as_CSA is_VBZ true_JJ for_IF many_DA2 commodities_NN2 such_II21 as_II22 the_AT numerous_JJ ones_NN2 displaced_VVN by_II microcomputers_NN2 ,_, production_NN1 ends_VVZ because_CS a_AT1 substitute_NN1 arises_VVZ and_CC takes_VVZ over_II the_AT market_NN1 ._. 
Bamett_VV0 and_CC Morse_NP1 raised_VVD the_AT narrower_JJR proposition_NN1 that_CST technical_JJ advance_NN1 had_VHD caused_VVN lessening_VVG scarcity_NN1 of_IO supposedly_RR exhaustible_JJ resources_NN2 ._. 
Herfindahl_NP1 (_( 1967_MC )_) suggested_VVD depletion_NN1 was_VBDZ too_RG distant_JJ to_TO affect_VVI decisions_NN2 ._. 
It_PPH1 is_VBZ a_AT1 simple_JJ next_MD step_NN1 to_TO deduce_VVI that_CST the_AT rise_NN1 of_IO substitutes_NN2 will_VM doom_NN1 exhaustible_JJ resources_NN2 long_RR before_II depletion_NN1 (_( see_VV0 Gordon_NP1 1967_MC )_) ._. "_" 
Koop-_JJ mans_NN2 (_( 1974_MC )_) ,_, Adelman_NP1 (_( 1995_MC )_) ,_, and_CC Julian_NP1 Simon_NP1 (_( 1996_MC )_) all_DB have_VH0 well_RR developed_VVN this_DD1 argument_NN1 ._. 
Curiously_RR ,_, the_AT current_JJ problem_NN1 is_VBZ fending_VVG off_RP efforts_NN2 prematurely_RR to_TO shift_VVI to_II substitutes_NN2 ._. 
Among_II the_AT related_JJ ironies_NN2 is_VBZ that_CST the_AT peak-energy_JJ faction_NN1 of_IO the_AT re-_JJ source-pessimism_JJ approach_NN1 is_VBZ pushing_VVG a_AT1 transition_NN1 on_II traditional_JJ exhaustion-fear_JJ grounds_NN2 while_CS another_DD1 group_NN1 bases_VVZ its_APPGE case_NN1 on_II the_AT argument_NN1 that_CST the_AT environmental_JJ effects_NN2 of_IO fossil_NN1 fuel_NN1 are_VBR so_RG dire_JJ that_CST a_AT1 shift_NN1 to_II renewables_NN2 is_VBZ imperative_JJ on_II an_AT1 environmental_JJ basis_NN1 ._. 
Thus_RR ,_, John_NP1 Holdren_NP1 's_GE contribution_NN1 to_II the_AT hysterical_JJ response_NN1 in_II Scientific_JJ American_NN1 (_( 2002_MC )_) to_II Lomborg_NP1 's_GE The_AT Skeptical_JJ Environmentalist_NN1 (_( 2001_MC )_) rebuked_VVD Lomborg_NP1 for_IF attacking_VVG claims_NN2 of_IO impending_JJ depletion_NN1 ._. 
Holdren_NP1 's_GE case_NN1 was_VBDZ that_CST this_DD1 view_NN1 was_VBDZ outmoded_JJ ,_, but_CCB this_DD1 neglects_VVZ the_AT flood_NN1 of_IO writings_NN2 on_II peak_NN1 oil_NN1 ._. 
The_AT view_NN1 here_RL is_VBZ that_CST neither_DD1 contention_NN1 is_VBZ acceptable_JJ ._. 
Another_DD1 often-mishandled_JJ issue_NN1 is_VBZ the_AT concept_NN1 of_IO the_AT stock_NN1 of_IO minerals_NN2 and_CC our_APPGE knowledge_NN1 about_II it_PPH1 ._. 
This_DD1 neglect_NN1 reflects_VVZ the_AT more_RGR basic_JJ problem_NN1 of_IO the_AT practical_JJ relevance_NN1 of_IO the_AT theory_NN1 ._. 
A_AT1 critical_JJ point_NN1 about_II mineral_NN1 stocks_NN2 is_VBZ that_CST the_AT economic_JJ stock_NN1 is_VBZ very_RG different_JJ from_II the_AT physical_JJ stock_NN1 ._. 
The_AT latter_DA is_VBZ in_II most_DAT cases_NN2 except_II21 for_II22 fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 limited_VVN by_II the_AT laws_NN2 of_IO physics_NN1 ._. 
Fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 are_VBR produced_VVN but_CCB in_II geological_JJ time_NNT1 ._. 
However_RR ,_, the_AT economic_JJ stock_NN1 changes_NN2 steadily_RR with_IW shifts_NN2 in_II costs_NN2 and_CC demand_NN1 ._. 
As_CSA Adelman_NP1 (_( 1995_MC )_) stresses_VVZ ,_, we_PPIS2 will_VM not_XX know_VVI what_DDQ the_AT stock_NN1 was_VBDZ until_CS extraction_NN1 ends_NN2 ._. 
He_PPHS1 adds_VVZ that_CST we_PPIS2 need_VM not_XX care_VVI ._. 
What_DDQ we_PPIS2 do_VD0 know_VVI is_VBZ whether_CSW development_NN1 is_VBZ successful_JJ in_II maintaining_VVG the_AT current_JJ ability_NN1 to_TO produce_VVI ._. 
This_DD1 is_VBZ sufficient_JJ to_TO indicate_VVI whether_CSW exhaustion_NN1 pressures_NN2 are_VBR mounting_VVG ._. 
Thus_RR ,_, elaborate_JJ surveys_NN2 of_IO physical_JJ endowment_NN1 lack_NN1 economic_JJ value_NN1 ._. 
