<time>436_00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:41,520</time>
<s>把这个序列给测序完成的</s>
<time>437_00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:42,960</time>
<s>中国在这个问题上慢了</s>
<time>438_00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:44,760</time>
<s>当时知道是微生物</s>
<time>439_00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:45,840</time>
<s>但不知道是病毒</s>
<time>440_00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,360</time>
<s>因为我们一路带到了支原体上去</s>
<time>441_00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,520</time>
<s>想了好多认为是支原体</s>
<time>442_00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:51,600</time>
<s>支原体是一种比病毒</s>
<time>443_00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:52,680</time>
<s>稍微高等一点儿</s>
<time>444_00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:53,760</time>
<s>比细菌稍微低等一点儿的</s>
<time>445_00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:54,480</time>
<s>一个中间的</s>
<time>446_00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:55,920</time>
<s>这样的另外一种微生物</s>
<time>447_00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:58,440</time>
<s>当年那个西班牙流感的时候</s>
<time>448_00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,680</time>
<s>其实也是全球好像大部分科学家</s>
<time>449_00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,200</time>
<s>一度认为那是一种细菌</s>
<time>450_00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:05,640</time>
<s>那都其实那个时候</s>
<time>451_00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,520</time>
<s>也有少数科学家指出</s>
<time>452_00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:09,600</time>
<s>它是一种病毒</s>
<time>453_00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:10,320</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>454_00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:12,480</time>
<s>这个大部分人的相信</s>
<time>455_00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:13,560</time>
<s>所以就沿着那个细菌的</s>
<time>456_00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,360</time>
<s>那个方向一直在搞</s>
<time>457_00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:16,800</time>
<s>窦老师我先插你这段</s>
<time>458_00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:18,600</time>
<s>病毒我们知道</s>
<time>459_00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:20,400</time>
<s>它存在是1892年</s>
<time>460_00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:21,120</time>
<s>伊方诺夫斯基</s>
<time>461_00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:22,560</time>
<s>当时就用了一种滤器</s>
<time>462_00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:24,000</time>
<s>就咱们的筛子</s>
<time>463_00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:25,440</time>
<s>把细菌都挡住了</s>
<time>464_00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:26,520</time>
<s>但是筛完了以后</s>
<time>465_00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:27,600</time>
<s>这东西还能感染</s>
<time>466_00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:29,040</time>
<s>他就知道了这个东西我挡不住</s>
<time>467_00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:30,120</time>
<s>就是它能更小</s>
<time>468_00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,280</time>
<s>至少比细菌还小</s>
<time>469_00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:33,360</time>
<s>病毒比细菌</s>
<time>470_00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:34,440</time>
<s>小很多是吧</s>
<time>471_00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:35,520</time>
<s>小上百上千倍</s>
<time>472_00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:37,320</time>
<s>对一个新冠病毒</s>
<time>473_00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:38,400</time>
<s>和一个女性的卵子</s>
<time>474_00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:41,280</time>
<s>您知道差多少倍吗</s>
<time>475_00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:42,360</time>
<s>多少倍</s>
<time>476_00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:43,440</time>
<s>不知道猜</s>
<time>477_00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:44,520</time>
<s>十亿倍</s>
<time>478_00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:46,320</time>
<s>十亿</s>
<time>479_00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,120</time>
<s>那它是那它分子</s>
<time>480_00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:49,560</time>
<s>它比分子它是</s>
<time>481_00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:51,360</time>
<s>它就是一个分子</s>
<time>482_00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:52,440</time>
<s>它已经接近于</s>
<time>483_00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:53,880</time>
<s>快到物理级的分子了</s>
<time>484_00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:55,680</time>
<s>一个病毒一百个纳米</s>
<time>485_00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:56,760</time>
<s>就新冠病毒</s>
<time>486_00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:58,560</time>
<s>我们晓得一个球是一百个纳米</s>
<time>487_00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,520</time>
<s>一个未成熟的卵子是一百个微米</s>
<time>488_00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,680</time>
<s>我们或者说叫零点一个毫米</s>
<time>489_00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:06,480</time>
<s>针尖那么大</s>
<time>490_00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,360</time>
<s>所以人眼的分辨率刚好能看得见</s>
<time>491_00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:10,440</time>
<s>就是能看见卵子</s>
<time>492_00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:11,520</time>
<s>这是我们唯一肉眼能看见的细胞</s>
<time>493_00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:12,600</time>
<s>就是这个卵子</s>
<time>494_00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:14,760</time>
<s>那我刚才那个是纳米</s>
<time>495_00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:16,560</time>
<s>现在说的是毫米</s>
<time>496_00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:17,280</time>
<s>中间还隔了一个微米</s>
<time>497_00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:19,440</time>
<s>这个东西一乘上去</s>
<time>498_00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,680</time>
<s>就是十的三次方在球体</s>
<time>499_00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:23,760</time>
<s>所以就差了十亿倍</s>
<time>500_00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:24,480</time>
<s>十的九次方</s>
<time>501_00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:26,280</time>
<s>就差这么大个东西</s>
<time>502_00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,440</time>
<s>我刚才讲1892年的时候</s>
<time>503_00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:29,880</time>
<s>知道有病毒了没看见</s>
<time>504_00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:30,600</time>
<s>筛出来</s>
<time>505_00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,400</time>
<s>1930年的时候</s>
<time>506_00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:33,480</time>
<s>德国人发明了电镜</s>
<time>507_00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:36,720</time>
<s>是要把电子当成光去用的时候</s>
<time>508_00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:37,800</time>
<s>我们才能看见病毒</s>
<time>509_00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:39,240</time>
<s>可是西班牙大流感</s>
<time>510_00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,400</time>
<s>是1918年的事情</s>
<time>511_00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:42,120</time>
<s>所以这个时候</s>
<time>512_00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:43,920</time>
<s>离我们看见病毒还有十多年</s>
<time>513_00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:45,000</time>
<s>所以那个时候</s>
<time>514_00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:46,440</time>
<s>你猜是病毒也没有证据</s>
<time>515_00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:48,960</time>
<s>人归根结底</s>
<time>516_00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,040</time>
<s>没有几个人像爱因斯坦</s>
<time>517_00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:51,120</time>
<s>靠物理公式想出来</s>
<time>518_00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:52,200</time>
<s>他就认为就对了</s>
<time>519_00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,000</time>
<s>绝大部分都是眼见为实</s>
<time>520_00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:55,440</time>
<s>不光是你们</s>
<time>521_00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:56,160</time>
<s>我们科学家也一样</s>
<time>522_00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:57,960</time>
<s>但是就是说这个</s>
<time>523_00:15:58,320 --> 00:15:59,400</time>
<s>跟精子比哪一个大</s>
<time>524_00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:00,840</time>
<s>精子比卵子小很多了</s>
<time>525_00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,360</time>
<s>但是精子比新冠病毒还是要大</s>
<time>526_00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:04,440</time>
<s>还是比新冠病毒大</s>
<time>527_00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:05,160</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>528_00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:05,880</time>
<s>大一亿倍</s>
<time>529_00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:07,320</time>
<s>那也就是说将来如果</s>
<time>530_00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:08,040</time>
<s>那倒没有</s>
<time>531_00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:09,480</time>
<s>到不了一亿倍</s>
<time>532_00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:12,000</time>
<s>大几十倍吧</s>
<time>533_00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:13,440</time>
<s>这么个水平几十倍</s>
<time>534_00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:14,520</time>
<s>那精子够小的</s>
<time>535_00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:15,240</time>
<s>对精子看不见</s>
<time>536_00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,120</time>
<s>所以男性对于人类的贡献</s>
<time>537_00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:19,200</time>
<s>都是卵子干的</s>
<time>538_00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:20,280</time>
<s>都是子宫</s>
<time>539_00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:21,360</time>
<s>卵子加子宫加女性</s>
<time>540_00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:23,160</time>
<s>我记得你好像</s>
<time>541_00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,320</time>
<s>以前在那个伯克利就说过一句</s>
<time>542_00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:26,760</time>
<s>说女性永远是你给她一个东西</s>
<time>543_00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:27,480</time>
<s>她就给你很多的</s>
<time>544_00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:28,200</time>
<s>放大</s>
<time>545_00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:29,280</time>
<s>给你很多馈赠</s>
<time>546_00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:30,360</time>
<s>那您刚刚意思就是说</s>
<time>547_00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:31,440</time>
<s>如果这个工具</s>
<time>548_00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,600</time>
<s>发展到一定的这个程度</s>
<time>549_00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:34,680</time>
<s>我们就可以瞬间检测</s>
<time>550_00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:35,760</time>
<s>比如说这个空间里</s>
<time>551_00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:36,840</time>
<s>有没有新冠病毒就可以</s>
<time>552_00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,640</time>
<s>说得对所以这一次</s>
<time>553_00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:39,360</time>
<s>我就回来这一次</s>
<time>554_00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:40,440</time>
<s>测完了以后当时就知道了患后甜</s>
<time>555_00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:41,160</time>
<s>测完了以后当时就知道了</s>
<time>556_00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:42,240</time>
<s>首先这是冠状病毒</s>
<time>557_00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:45,120</time>
<s>第二个我知道它不是SARS（非典）</s>
<time>558_00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:46,200</time>
<s>因为它俩的基因相似度</s>
<time>559_00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:47,280</time>
<s>只有百分之八十不到</s>
<time>560_00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:49,080</time>
<s>差很大病毒差百分之二十</s>
<time>561_00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:50,160</time>
<s>就很大了你看</s>
<time>562_00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,040</time>
<s>比我们跟狗的差别都大</s>
<time>563_00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,920</time>
<s>所以它俩最多就是一个妈生的</s>
<time>564_00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:57,360</time>
<s>我们叫都是冠状病毒科的</s>
<time>565_00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:58,080</time>
<s>但是是两支</s>
<time>566_00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:00,240</time>
<s>是两支这两支是不一样的</s>
<time>567_00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,040</time>
<s>那时候也没有名字的</s>
<time>568_00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:03,120</time>
<s>当年就没法定名</s>
<time>569_00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:04,920</time>
<s>但是肯定不要污名化</s>
<time>570_00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:06,000</time>
<s>比如西班牙大流感</s>
<time>571_00:17:06,360 --> 00:17:07,080</time>
<s>这是很扯的事</s>
<time>572_00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:08,160</time>
<s>这跟西班牙没什么关系</s>
<time>573_00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:08,880</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>574_00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:10,320</time>
<s>它只是西班牙国王感染了</s>
<time>575_00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:11,040</time>
<s>最后就扔个名字</s>
<time>576_00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:12,120</time>
<s>你们西班牙国王都感染了</s>
<time>577_00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:13,920</time>
<s>就叫西班牙大流感了</s>
<time>578_00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:15,360</time>
<s>人类对病毒甩锅这个事儿</s>
<time>579_00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:16,440</time>
<s>不是从现在开始的</s>
<time>580_00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:17,160</time>
<s>一直都甩</s>
<time>581_00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:18,960</time>
<s>对因为当时还有一个原因</s>
<time>582_00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,120</time>
<s>是这个第一次世界大战</s>
<time>583_00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,280</time>
<s>实际上你比如说在美国先起来的</s>
<time>584_00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:24,360</time>
<s>这个西班牙流感</s>
<time>585_00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:25,080</time>
<s>对 是的</s>
<time>586_00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:26,880</time>
<s>然后美国法国德国</s>
<time>587_00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,400</time>
<s>这些参战国大量士兵感染</s>
<time>588_00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,920</time>
<s>但是它这个东西影响战局</s>
<time>589_00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:33,000</time>
<s>所以都不说</s>
<time>590_00:17:33,360 --> 00:17:35,160</time>
<s>但是西班牙是中立国</s>
<time>591_00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:36,960</time>
<s>所以相比之下这中立国</s>
<time>592_00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:38,760</time>
<s>就说那就是你得的</s>
<time>593_00:17:39,120 --> 00:17:40,200</time>
<s>那两边都隐满着</s>
<time>594_00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,000</time>
<s>我们历史上干过好多这样的事情</s>
<time>595_00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:43,800</time>
<s>比如说我们现在南方</s>
<time>596_00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:44,880</time>
<s>也有个叫地中海贫血</s>
<time>597_00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:46,680</time>
<s>就是一种败血</s>
<time>598_00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:47,760</time>
<s>其实实际上是一种坏血</s>
<time>599_00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:49,920</time>
<s>就是因为最早在地中海发现的</s>
<time>600_00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:51,000</time>
<s>其实后来发现哪都有</s>
<time>601_00:17:51,360 --> 00:17:52,800</time>
<s>只要是这个纬度有疮疾的地方</s>
<time>602_00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:53,880</time>
<s>就有地贫地中海贫血</s>
<time>603_00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:54,960</time>
<s>有蚊子可以传播的那种</s>
<time>604_00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:56,040</time>
<s>它是对抗疟疾存在的</s>
<time>605_00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:57,120</time>
<s>因为得了</s>
<time>606_00:17:58,200 --> 00:17:58,920</time>
<s>得疮疾和得地贫</s>
<time>607_00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:00,720</time>
<s>在治不了疟疾的时候</s>
<time>608_00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:03,960</time>
<s>因为地贫携带者是不得疮疾的</s>
<time>609_00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,120</time>
<s>或者说得了疮疾以后症状比较轻</s>
<time>610_00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,280</time>
<s>它是两害相衡取其轻的一个表现</s>
<time>611_00:18:09,360 --> 00:18:10,080</time>
<s>今天已经没有疮疾了</s>
<time>612_00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:10,800</time>
<s>地贫就变成一个很重要的</s>
<time>613_00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:11,880</time>
<s>遗传病了</s>
<time>614_00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,400</time>
<s>但是你把这个名字叫做地中海了</s>
<time>615_00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:15,840</time>
<s>大家就想地中海贫血</s>
<time>616_00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:16,920</time>
<s>是不是就只在地中海</s>
<time>617_00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:18,000</time>
<s>不是它只是一个病名</s>
<time>618_00:18:18,360 --> 00:18:19,080</time>
<s>香港脚呢</s>
<time>619_00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:20,880</time>
<s>香港脚也是一个污名化</s>
<time>620_00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,040</time>
<s>其实你说这种脚气哪没有</s>
<time>621_00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:24,840</time>
<s>2012年的MERS（中东呼吸综合征）</s>
<time>622_00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:26,280</time>
<s>也是叫中东</s>
<time>623_00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:27,360</time>
<s>其实人家也很郁闷</s>
<time>624_00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:29,160</time>
<s>为什么叫Middle East（中东）</s>
<time>625_00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:30,960</time>
<s>那明明就是骆驼身上带来的</s>
<time>626_00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:32,760</time>
<s>所以现在就不要去污名化</s>
<time>627_00:18:33,120 --> 00:18:34,200</time>
<s>因为“骆驼S”对吧</s>
<time>628_00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:37,440</time>
<s>这个我就接着讲吧</s>
<time>629_00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:38,520</time>
<s>拿到（新冠）病毒</s>
<time>630_00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:40,680</time>
<s>然后按照中国的传染病防治法</s>
<time>631_00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:41,760</time>
<s>我们必须跟CDC（疾病预防控制中心）合作圆桌派</s>
<time>632_00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:42,840</time>
<s>然后它公布数据</s>
<time>633_00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:44,640</time>
<s>实际上这个很短</s>
<time>634_00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:45,720</time>
<s>两周就出来这个结果了</s>
<time>635_00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:46,800</time>
<s>相比于半年快了很多</s>
<time>636_00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,600</time>
<s>您刚才不是问我有什么好处吗</s>
<time>637_00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:49,680</time>
<s>就可以做诊断了</s>
<time>638_00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:52,560</time>
<s>只要我知道这个病毒的全貌</s>
<time>639_00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,000</time>
<s>人是三十亿个碱基（对）</s>
<time>640_00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:56,520</time>
<s>病毒冠状病毒三万个碱基(对)</s>
<time>641_00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:57,600</time>
<s>只有三万个</s>
<time>642_00:18:59,040 --> 00:18:59,760</time>
<s>但是这三万个碱基（对）里面</s>
<time>643_00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:00,840</time>
<s>它很厉害</s>
<time>644_00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,000</time>
<s>这三万个碱基（对）当你面对</s>
<time>645_00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:05,520</time>
<s>你三十亿这个长城的时候</s>
<time>646_00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:06,960</time>
<s>我只要打你一个点就够了</s>
<time>647_00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:08,760</time>
<s>这个点就叫ACE2（血管紧张素转化酶2）</s>
<time>648_00:19:09,120 --> 00:19:09,840</time>
<s>就是细胞表面上</s>
<time>649_00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:10,920</time>
<s>我们假定有一个门</s>
<time>650_00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,800</time>
<s>那么这一次的冠状病毒</s>
<time>651_00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:14,880</time>
<s>如果说当年的SARS（非典）</s>
<time>652_00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,840</time>
<s>手里是拿了一把锤子在那个地方砍</s>
<time>653_00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:19,920</time>
<s>这次拿的是电钻</s>
<time>654_00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:21,720</time>
<s>直接就给你钻进去了</s>
<time>655_00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:22,800</time>
<s>所以它就是侵袭力特别强</s>
<time>656_00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:24,960</time>
<s>然后从最开始的阿尔法</s>
<time>657_00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:26,760</time>
<s>贝塔伽玛德尔塔</s>
<time>658_00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:27,480</time>
<s>到德尔塔的时候</s>
<time>659_00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:28,920</time>
<s>它已经手里面拿的不是电钻了</s>
<time>660_00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:30,000</time>
<s>它基本上拿了个火箭炮了</s>
<time>661_00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:31,800</time>
<s>直接看到门就直接开一个炮</s>
<time>662_00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:32,520</time>
<s>就给它炸了</s>
<time>663_00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,680</time>
<s>就是比SARS（非典）要高一千倍是吗</s>
<time>664_00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:36,480</time>
<s>它的这种我们有个值</s>
<time>665_00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:37,920</time>
<s>叫基本传染数</s>
<time>666_00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,800</time>
<s>就是我们都不采取防护</s>
<time>667_00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,960</time>
<s>我一个病毒一天可以传染几个人</s>
<time>668_00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:44,760</time>
<s>SARS（非典）就是三左右</s>
<time>669_00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,360</time>
<s>新冠刚出来的时候推测是三到五</s>
<time>670_00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,880</time>
<s>但是已经演变成了现在是第四代</s>
<time>671_00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,040</time>
<s>就是德尔塔株或者叫印度株</s>
<time>672_00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:53,760</time>
<s>这个株的时候</s>
<time>673_00:19:54,120 --> 00:19:55,920</time>
<s>已经基本上在七到九了</s>
<time>674_00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:57,000</time>
<s>七到九是什么概念呢</s>
<time>675_00:19:57,360 --> 00:19:57,720</time>
<s>接近于我们历史上</s>
<time>676_00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,880</time>
<s>传染病最高的麻疹</s>
<time>677_00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:02,400</time>
<s>或者是类似于</s>
<time>678_00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:04,920</time>
<s>就总之这是属于病毒里</s>
<time>679_00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:06,720</time>
<s>最强的这一类的</s>
<time>680_00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,880</time>
<s>比流感的传染性还要强</s>
<time>681_00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,040</time>
<s>这就是为什么最近全世界不安宁</s>
<time>682_00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:12,480</time>
<s>就是因为德尔塔株又起来了</s>
<time>683_00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,720</time>
<s>对这个病毒是一种怎样的存在</s>
<time>684_00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,240</time>
<s>它甚至连个生命都不能算</s>
<time>685_00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:19,680</time>
<s>对严格意义上讲</s>
<time>686_00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:21,840</time>
<s>它确实不具备生命的很多特征</s>
<time>687_00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,000</time>
<s>对它算怎么回事儿呢</s>
<time>688_00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:26,880</time>
<s>就是它这跟几十亿年跟我们人类</s>
<time>689_00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,040</time>
<s>甚至是不是跟生命同龄应该说</s>
<time>690_00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:30,840</time>
<s>应该来讲它是说</s>
<time>691_00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,800</time>
<s>最古老的生命形式可能就是病毒</s>
<time>692_00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:35,880</time>
<s>病毒至少是其中的一种</s>
<time>693_00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:36,960</time>
<s>如果按照</s>
<time>694_00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,560</time>
<s>亚里士多德当年的一个哲学</s>
<time>695_00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,000</time>
<s>亚里士多德认为</s>
<time>696_00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:45,960</time>
<s>这个万物是有一个最高目的的</s>
<time>697_00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:47,760</time>
<s>就是所有的这个目的</s>
<time>698_00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,640</time>
<s>一个东西分质料形式</s>
<time>699_00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:51,720</time>
<s>但是形式</s>
<time>700_00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,680</time>
<s>你比如说木材最后的目的是桌子</s>
<time>701_00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:57,840</time>
<s>桌子最后的目的可能是房子</s>
<time>702_00:20:58,920 --> 00:20:59,280</time>
<s>它这么一层层</s>
<time>703_00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:00,000</time>
<s>它是逻辑的</s>
<time>704_00:21:00,360 --> 00:21:01,080</time>
<s>它一直一直</s>
<time>705_00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,960</time>
<s>所以他就提出那最高的存在</s>
<time>706_00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:05,400</time>
<s>就是神就是所有的东西</s>
<time>707_00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:06,120</time>
<s>它是个目的论</s>
<time>708_00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:06,840</time>
<s>向它靠拢</s>
<time>709_00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,720</time>
<s>对那么有的时候我们不禁</s>
<time>710_00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:10,800</time>
<s>就按这个说</s>
<time>711_00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,040</time>
<s>你比如说要是说我们这个生命</s>
<time>712_00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,920</time>
<s>我们可以说最早什么单细胞生物</s>
<time>713_00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:18,720</time>
<s>越来越复杂</s>
<time>714_00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,520</time>
<s>那最后是为了变成我们这个人</s>
<time>715_00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,840</time>
<s>但是这个病毒它存在</s>
<time>716_00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,640</time>
<s>而且它一直就这样</s>
<time>717_00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:28,440</time>
<s>那我有点儿不太懂</s>
<time>718_00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,600</time>
<s>它是要变植物还是要变动物</s>
<time>719_00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,040</time>
<s>它的目的是什么呢</s>
<time>720_00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:32,760</time>
<s>它是这样子的</s>
<time>721_00:21:33,120 --> 00:21:34,920</time>
<s>就是说我们从两个角度</s>
<time>722_00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:35,640</time>
<s>去思考这个问题</s>
<time>723_00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:37,080</time>
<s>先从大家比较容易理解的</s>
<time>724_00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,600</time>
<s>有一个人叫理查德·道金斯</s>
<time>725_00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,680</time>
<s>写了一本很著名的书</s>
<time>726_00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:42,480</time>
<s>上个世纪八十年代吧</s>
<time>727_00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,080</time>
<s>《自私的基因》</s>
<time>728_00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:46,800</time>
<s>他就讲</s>
<time>729_00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:48,960</time>
<s>人之初性本善性本恶</s>
<time>730_00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:50,760</time>
<s>都不是性本私</s>
<time>731_00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:52,560</time>
<s>没有什么对错</s>
<time>732_00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:53,640</time>
<s>我就是想繁殖自己</s>
<time>733_00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,800</time>
<s>对病毒恰恰把它理解成</s>
<time>734_00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:56,880</time>
<s>就是几个基因的组合</s>
<time>735_00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,760</time>
<s>它唯一存在的目的就是复制自己</s>
<time>736_00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,200</time>
<s>比如说它像伏地魔一样</s>
<time>737_00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,080</time>
<s>可以装到几个魂器里去</s>
<time>738_00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:05,520</time>
<s>你看那边都已经死了</s>
<time>739_00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,320</time>
<s>但是恰当的条件</s>
<time>740_00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,040</time>
<s>重新组合它又活了</s>
<time>741_00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,920</time>
<s>而病毒这种生命形式的存在</s>
<time>742_00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,800</time>
<s>就是当无机向有机</s>
<time>743_00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,960</time>
<s>打破这个界限所产生的</s>
<time>744_00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:17,760</time>
<s>一个比较基础层次的东西</s>
<time>745_00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:18,840</time>
<s>你看到生命</s>
<time>746_00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:19,920</time>
<s>它还没到生命</s>
<time>747_00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,000</time>
<s>它就在这个边界上了</s>
<time>748_00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:22,800</time>
<s>这也可能是前生命</s>
<time>749_00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:23,520</time>
<s>也可以这么理解</s>
<time>750_00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:24,960</time>
<s>那为什么别的星球没有呢</s>
<time>751_00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:26,760</time>
<s>我们只是不知道</s>
<time>752_00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:28,920</time>
<s>这是一个不可知论</s>
<time>753_00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:29,640</time>
<s>而不是没有论</s>
<time>754_00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:31,080</time>
<s>那病毒有没有可能</s>
<time>755_00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:32,160</time>
<s>进一步再发展呢</s>
<time>756_00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:32,880</time>
<s>当然可能</s>
<time>757_00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:34,680</time>
<s>它的发展它很简单</s>
<time>758_00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:35,760</time>
<s>它对抗你就行了</s>
<time>759_00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:36,840</time>
<s>很多人跟我讲说</s>
<time>760_00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:38,640</time>
<s>这个病毒没有智能</s>
<time>761_00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:39,720</time>
<s>为什么这么厉害</s>
<time>762_00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:40,440</time>
<s>我说它不需要有智能</s>
<time>763_00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:41,880</time>
<s>它对抗人类智能就行了</s>
<time>764_00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,040</time>
<s>对就按照咱们这个生命的规律</s>
<time>765_00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:45,480</time>
<s>它为什么不继续进化</s>
<time>766_00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:46,920</time>
<s>成为一个有机的生命呢</s>
<time>767_00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:48,000</time>
<s>因为它已经可以</s>
<time>768_00:22:48,360 --> 00:22:49,800</time>
<s>有它更方便的方式</s>
<time>769_00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:50,880</time>
<s>进行寄生就行了</s>
<time>770_00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,040</time>
<s>寄生对它来讲是能耗最低的</s>
<time>771_00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:54,840</time>
<s>最利于自私的基因发展最大化的</s>
<time>772_00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:56,640</time>
<s>那为什么我们这么不自私呢</s>
<time>773_00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,160</time>
<s>我们倒这样越搞越复杂呢</s>
<time>774_00:22:59,520 --> 00:22:59,880</time>
<s>它跟我们比谁更高级</s>
<time>775_00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:00,600</time>
<s>在做生命科学</s>
<time>776_00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,400</time>
<s>一般就会遇到这个词</s>
<time>777_00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:03,480</time>
<s>大部分人听到是进化</s>
<time>778_00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:05,640</time>
<s>但实际上evolution</s>
<time>779_00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,440</time>
<s>这个词正确的翻译是演化</s>
<time>780_00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:08,160</time>
<s>演化</s>
<time>781_00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:09,600</time>
<s>没有对</s>
<time>782_00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,400</time>
<s>就严复翻译得非常准</s>
<time>783_00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:12,120</time>
<s>物竞天择</s>
<time>784_00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,280</time>
<s>最适而不是最优</s>
<time>785_00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:15,720</time>
<s>其实没有最优</s>
<time>786_00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,520</time>
<s>只有更优</s>
<time>787_00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:18,600</time>
<s>所以新冠病毒之所以厉害</s>
<time>788_00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,400</time>
<s>就是在于你怎么变我就怎么变</s>
<time>789_00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:21,480</time>
<s>我是你的镜子</s>
<time>790_00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:22,560</time>
<s>镜子没有智能吧</s>
<time>791_00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,360</time>
<s>但是你想化妆</s>
<time>792_00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:25,440</time>
<s>我就造出你的样子</s>
<time>793_00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:27,600</time>
<s>我不需要跟你人类一样</s>
<time>794_00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:28,320</time>
<s>你又搞疫苗</s>
<time>795_00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:29,400</time>
<s>你又搞这个</s>
<time>796_00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,200</time>
<s>只要我基因跟你用一套法则</s>
<time>797_00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,720</time>
<s>我能撬开你那个门我就赢了</s>
<time>798_00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,160</time>
<s>这是病毒的生存规律</s>
<time>799_00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:36,600</time>
<s>所以人类比如说</s>
<time>800_00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:37,680</time>
<s>中国是怎么战胜病毒的</s>
<time>801_00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:39,480</time>
<s>我们可以举出很多例子</s>
<time>802_00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:41,640</time>
<s>我们中国有很强大的</s>
<time>803_00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:42,720</time>
<s>社会组织能力</s>
<time>804_00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,520</time>
<s>党和政府组织起来了</s>
<time>805_00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:45,600</time>
<s>我们科学家都很努力</s>
<time>806_00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:46,680</time>
<s>老百姓也都很配合</s>
<time>807_00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:47,400</time>
<s>但归根结底</s>
<time>808_00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,560</time>
<s>你用了病毒不会的语言</s>
<time>809_00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:50,640</time>
<s>病毒不会隔离</s>
<time>810_00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,160</time>
<s>病毒可不会大家集体</s>
<time>811_00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:54,240</time>
<s>去做公共卫生行动</s>
<time>812_00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,400</time>
<s>但是你要用疫苗去对付病毒</s>
<time>813_00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,560</time>
<s>你看着你永远对付不完它</s>
<time>814_00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,360</time>
<s>因为它一直会变</s>
<time>815_00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,440</time>
<s>就像流感</s>
<time>816_00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:02,520</time>
<s>最后这个病毒</s>
<time>817_00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:03,600</time>
<s>和人类不是取得了</s>
<time>818_00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:05,760</time>
<s>一个皆大欢喜的一个结果吗</s>
<time>819_00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:08,640</time>
<s>最终疫苗对付不了它吗</s>
<time>820_00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:11,520</time>
<s>我们可以说没有疫情了</s>
<time>821_00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:13,680</time>
<s>但是我们不会说没有病毒了</s>
<time>822_00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,280</time>
<s>所有的病毒几乎在一定</s>
<time>823_00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:18,360</time>
<s>感染了一定层次以后</s>
<time>824_00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,520</time>
<s>都会变成比较趋于温和的状态</s>
<time>825_00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,680</time>
<s>因为如果病毒把人类都搞死了</s>
<time>826_00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:23,760</time>
<s>它自己也就死了</s>
<time>827_00:24:24,120 --> 00:24:25,200</time>
<s>我们现在能看见的趋势是</s>
<time>828_00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,360</time>
<s>虽然德尔塔病毒传染性越来越强</s>
<time>829_00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:28,080</time>
<s>但是致死率</s>
<time>830_00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:29,520</time>
<s>比开始已经大幅度下降了</s>
<time>831_00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,040</time>
<s>它现在致死率和重症流感</s>
<time>832_00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:33,120</time>
<s>几乎相当</s>
<time>833_00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:34,200</time>
<s>在千分之一左右</s>
<time>834_00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,000</time>
<s>虽然还没有降到万分之一</s>
<time>835_00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,520</time>
<s>这是它自己变得毒性减低</s>
<time>836_00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,320</time>
<s>还是因为我们的注射疫苗</s>
<time>837_00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:41,400</time>
<s>都有都有关系</s>
<time>838_00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,200</time>
<s>注射疫苗肯定有用</s>
<time>839_00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,360</time>
<s>因为虽然说注射</s>
<time>840_00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:46,080</time>
<s>你看我们最近感染的</s>
<time>841_00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:47,520</time>
<s>好多都是打了疫苗的</s>
<time>842_00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,600</time>
<s>但是没有危重了</s>
<time>843_00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,400</time>
<s>至少在危重性上来讲</s>
<time>844_00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,560</time>
<s>我极大地降小了这个概率</s>
<time>845_00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:53,640</time>
<s>我们用网络游戏的语言</s>
<time>846_00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,440</time>
<s>暴击率被降低了</s>
<time>847_00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:56,160</time>
<s>感染率还是在</s>
<time>848_00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,320</time>
<s>我不懂那么多科学道理</s>
<time>849_00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,120</time>
<s>但我有一个简单的想法</s>
<time>850_00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,000</time>
<s>我总觉得对付这个病毒</s>
<time>851_00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,240</time>
<s>靠疫苗就像你刚才说的</s>
<time>852_00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,040</time>
<s>这个魔高一尺道高一丈</s>
<time>853_00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:09,120</time>
<s>这样没完没了</s>
<time>854_00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,000</time>
<s>什么情况下人类可以觉得</s>
<time>855_00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,160</time>
<s>暂时打赢这一仗呢</s>
<time>856_00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,320</time>
<s>就是有一些药</s>
<time>857_00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,920</time>
<s>能够使得人得了这个病不死</s>
<time>858_00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:21,720</time>
<s>或者不那么容易死</s>
<time>859_00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:23,160</time>
<s>我们就想想流感</s>
<time>860_00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,320</time>
<s>流感其实在历史上</s>
<time>861_00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,120</time>
<s>已经来过无数次了</s>
<time>862_00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:28,560</time>
<s>但是1918年这次</s>
