<time>1706_00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:33,360</time>
<s>就认为这是正确的废话</s>
<time>1707_00:50:33,720 --> 00:50:35,520</time>
<s>我先把这个定论先说清楚</s>
<time>1708_00:50:36,240 --> 00:50:36,960</time>
<s>在这个过程中</s>
<time>1709_00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,120</time>
<s>我们简单地从人类的</s>
<time>1710_00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:40,560</time>
<s>健康的角度去理解</s>
<time>1711_00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,440</time>
<s>有三件事情跟基因是高度相关的</s>
<time>1712_00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:44,880</time>
<s>第一个事情大家都知道</s>
<time>1713_00:50:45,240 --> 00:50:45,960</time>
<s>外来侵入的基因</s>
<time>1714_00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:47,760</time>
<s>传染感染</s>
<time>1715_00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:48,840</time>
<s>新冠是最典型的</s>
<time>1716_00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:49,560</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>1717_00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:50,280</time>
<s>绝大部分</s>
<time>1718_00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:52,800</time>
<s>其实我都不能叫感染</s>
<time>1719_00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:54,600</time>
<s>因为我们本来就在“感染”</s>
<time>1720_00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:55,680</time>
<s>打引号的</s>
<time>1721_00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:57,480</time>
<s>你身上带这么多菌毒</s>
<time>1722_00:50:57,840 --> 00:50:59,640</time>
<s>只是说你跟它平时是和平的</s>
<time>1723_00:51:00,720 --> 00:51:01,440</time>
<s>它没有闹事儿</s>
<time>1724_00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:03,600</time>
<s>我们一般认为你感染了</s>
<time>1725_00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:04,680</time>
<s>你脓毒血症了</s>
<time>1726_00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:05,760</time>
<s>是因为你跟你微生物的</s>
<time>1727_00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:06,840</time>
<s>谈判破裂了</s>
<time>1728_00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:09,720</time>
<s>破裂了这个破裂了有太多问题</s>
<time>1729_00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:11,520</time>
<s>衰老了免疫系统不行了等等</s>
<time>1730_00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:12,600</time>
<s>各种问题</s>
<time>1731_00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:13,680</time>
<s>这是外来侵入的基因</s>
<time>1732_00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:15,480</time>
<s>我们刚才聊了</s>
<time>1733_00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,360</time>
<s>第一个无创产前基因检测</s>
<time>1734_00:51:18,720 --> 00:51:19,800</time>
<s>这是一个与生俱来的基因</s>
<time>1735_00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:22,320</time>
<s>这个东西决定出生缺陷</s>
<time>1736_00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,840</time>
<s>也决定每一个人的生存质量</s>
<time>1737_00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:25,560</time>
<s>因为我从娘胎里</s>
<time>1738_00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,720</time>
<s>就带进来的缺陷会很麻烦</s>
<time>1739_00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:29,520</time>
<s>尤其是遗传病</s>
<time>1740_00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:30,960</time>
<s>如果福利在这方面更好</s>
<time>1741_00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:32,040</time>
<s>大家也不歧视</s>
<time>1742_00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:33,480</time>
<s>有个唐氏综合征我觉得没问题</s>
<time>1743_00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:35,280</time>
<s>如果你真的见到</s>
<time>1744_00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:36,360</time>
<s>这些唐氏综合征的孩子</s>
<time>1745_00:51:36,720 --> 00:51:38,160</time>
<s>比如舟舟现在在华大</s>
<time>1746_00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:39,960</time>
<s>我们就是聘他当我们的雇员</s>
<time>1747_00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:41,400</time>
<s>我们自己还有几个“唐宝宝”</s>
<time>1748_00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:42,480</time>
<s>他们都是幸运的</s>
<time>1749_00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:43,200</time>
<s>大部分唐氏儿</s>
<time>1750_00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,360</time>
<s>都没有见过公园什么样</s>
<time>1751_00:51:45,720 --> 00:51:46,080</time>
<s>不好意思领出去</s>
<time>1752_00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:47,520</time>
<s>那是真正的</s>
<time>1753_00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:49,320</time>
<s>你不能站在一个无限的伦理高地</s>
<time>1754_00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,120</time>
<s>去讲这个堕胎这些问题</s>
<time>1755_00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:53,280</time>
<s>它都要在一定的社会环境下来聊</s>
<time>1756_00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,080</time>
<s>现在我们看得见</s>
<time>1757_00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:56,520</time>
<s>希望的恰恰是您刚才说的</s>
<time>1758_00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:58,320</time>
<s>与时俱变的肿瘤</s>
<time>1759_00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,920</time>
<s>肿瘤的基因生下来是好的</s>
<time>1760_00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:03,360</time>
<s>因为物理的化学的生物的</s>
<time>1761_00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:05,160</time>
<s>发生基因突变了</s>
<time>1762_00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:06,240</time>
<s>它是个与时俱变的基因</s>
<time>1763_00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:07,320</time>
<s>对那有什么办法呢</s>
<time>1764_00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:09,120</time>
<s>这个基因我们现在是有办法的</s>
<time>1765_00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:10,200</time>
<s>我举几个例子</s>
<time>1766_00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:10,920</time>
<s>首先说</s>
<time>1767_00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:12,360</time>
<s>我们为什么感觉肿瘤多了</s>
<time>1768_00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:14,520</time>
<s>其实它是一个大问题</s>
<time>1769_00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,320</time>
<s>是在于我们活得太长了</s>
<time>1770_00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:19,200</time>
<s>1949年中国人的</s>
<time>1771_00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,360</time>
<s>平均预期寿命小于三十九岁</s>
<time>1772_00:52:21,720 --> 00:52:23,160</time>
<s>三十九岁是可统计上的</s>
<time>1773_00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:24,240</time>
<s>还有好多统计不上来</s>
<time>1774_00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:26,760</time>
<s>今天中国的平均预期寿命</s>
<time>1775_00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:27,480</time>
<s>是七十七岁</s>
<time>1776_00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:29,640</time>
<s>中国香港是最高的</s>
<time>1777_00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:30,360</time>
<s>八十六岁</s>
<time>1778_00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:32,520</time>
<s>平均可以活到八十六岁</s>
<time>1779_00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:34,320</time>
<s>就是这一刻生出来的孩子</s>
<time>1780_00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:35,760</time>
<s>大概率能活到八十六岁</s>
<time>1781_00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:36,480</time>
<s>没有战争</s>
<time>1782_00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:37,200</time>
<s>没有其他的问题</s>
<time>1783_00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:39,360</time>
<s>这个世纪初出生的孩子</s>
<time>1784_00:52:39,720 --> 00:52:40,440</time>
<s>我们现在大概率预测</s>
<time>1785_00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:42,240</time>
<s>可能会接近九十岁</s>
<time>1786_00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:43,680</time>
<s>日本现在已经</s>
<time>1787_00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:44,760</time>
<s>它的大阪地区的女性</s>
<time>1788_00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:46,200</time>
<s>已经超过九十岁了</s>
<time>1789_00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,360</time>
<s>也就是人类正在努力地</s>
<time>1790_00:52:48,720 --> 00:52:50,520</time>
<s>活到基因设计的极限</s>
<time>1791_00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:51,240</time>
<s>我们现在推测的极限</s>
<time>1792_00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:52,680</time>
<s>是一百到一百七十五岁</s>
<time>1793_00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:53,400</time>
<s>圆桌派</s>
<time>1794_00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:55,560</time>
<s>所以我们当时取了个一百二十岁</s>
<time>1795_00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:56,280</time>
<s>这其实是背后</s>
<time>1796_00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:58,080</time>
<s>还是根据哺乳动物来预测的</s>
<time>1797_00:52:58,800 --> 00:52:59,520</time>
<s>就是我们可能大概率</s>
<time>1798_00:53:00,240 --> 00:53:00,960</time>
<s>大家集体奔着九十岁</s>
<time>1799_00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:02,400</time>
<s>一百岁活</s>
<time>1800_00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:03,480</time>
<s>这是一个大概率的事件</s>
<time>1801_00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:05,280</time>
<s>而从人类如果活到</s>
<time>1802_00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:06,360</time>
<s>八十岁的情况下</s>
<time>1803_00:53:06,720 --> 00:53:07,800</time>
<s>你有多大的概率会得肿瘤呢</s>
<time>1804_00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:08,520</time>
<s>大约四分之一</s>
<time>1805_00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:09,600</time>
<s>圆桌派</s>
<time>1806_00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:10,320</time>
<s>大约四分之一</s>
<time>1807_00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:11,400</time>
<s>八十岁</s>
<time>1808_00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:12,480</time>
<s>如果一个人能活到八十岁</s>
<time>1809_00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:13,560</time>
<s>大约有百分之二十二</s>
<time>1810_00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:15,720</time>
<s>到二十五的几率会得一次肿瘤</s>
<time>1811_00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:17,520</time>
<s>你说一个人得一个肿瘤</s>
<time>1812_00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:18,240</time>
<s>又得一个肿瘤</s>
<time>1813_00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:19,320</time>
<s>也有很少</s>
<time>1814_00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:20,400</time>
<s>好像很少听到</s>
<time>1815_00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:21,840</time>
<s>就是要不一个肿瘤就死了</s>
<time>1816_00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:22,560</time>
<s>要不一个肿瘤治了</s>
<time>1817_00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:24,360</time>
<s>就也没有别的肿瘤了</s>
<time>1818_00:53:24,720 --> 00:53:25,440</time>
<s>往往是这个样子</s>
<time>1819_00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:26,520</time>
<s>所以最重要的是在于</s>
<time>1820_00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,400</time>
<s>我怎么在肿瘤早期的时候</s>
<time>1821_00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:30,480</time>
<s>能够发现它并干预它</s>
<time>1822_00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:31,560</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>1823_00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:32,640</time>
<s>检测技术</s>
<time>1824_00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:35,160</time>
<s>所以我们说没有突然发生的肿瘤</s>
<time>1825_00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:37,320</time>
<s>只有突然发现的肿瘤</s>
<time>1826_00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:40,560</time>
<s>也就是说今天世卫提出的</s>
<time>1827_00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,360</time>
<s>第一个可以被干掉的肿瘤</s>
<time>1828_00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,240</time>
<s>2047年全世界一起</s>
<time>1829_00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:46,320</time>
<s>它用的词也很精准</s>
<time>1830_00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:47,400</time>
<s>不叫消灭</s>
<time>1831_00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:48,120</time>
<s>叫消除</s>
<time>1832_00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,720</time>
<s>要求是发病率低于十万分之四</s>
<time>1833_00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:54,240</time>
<s>您猜猜这个是什么肿瘤</s>
<time>1834_00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:55,320</time>
<s>跟女性相关</s>
<time>1835_00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,200</time>
<s>难道是这个跟子宫有关</s>
<time>1836_00:53:58,920 --> 00:53:59,640</time>
<s>宫颈癌</s>
<time>1837_00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:01,440</time>
<s>对的子宫颈癌</s>
<time>1838_00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:02,520</time>
<s>因为现在已经有那个</s>
<time>1839_00:54:02,880 --> 00:54:03,960</time>
<s>就可以打那种接种疫苗</s>
<time>1840_00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:04,680</time>
<s>两个技术</s>
<time>1841_00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:06,120</time>
<s>一个是疫苗可以普及了</s>
<time>1842_00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:07,560</time>
<s>而且现在都是</s>
<time>1843_00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:09,360</time>
<s>在没有性生活的时候就打</s>
<time>1844_00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:12,240</time>
<s>子宫颈癌其实不能叫性传播疾病</s>
<time>1845_00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:14,400</time>
<s>因为这种病毒是广泛存在的</s>
<time>1846_00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:16,200</time>
<s>有人说男性为什么不得</s>
<time>1847_00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:17,640</time>
<s>男性很容易清洁</s>
<time>1848_00:54:18,720 --> 00:54:20,520</time>
<s>女性的宫颈大家一般清洁不到</s>
<time>1849_00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:21,960</time>
<s>当免疫不好的时候</s>
<time>1850_00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,560</time>
<s>长期被中高危型的HPV（人乳头瘤病毒）感染圆桌 派</s>
<time>1851_00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:26,640</time>
<s>慢慢地就变了</s>
<time>1852_00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:27,360</time>
<s>这个过程有多久呢</s>
<time>1853_00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:29,160</time>
<s>几年到十几年</s>
<time>1854_00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:31,680</time>
<s>也是因为这个走的</s>
<time>1855_00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:33,480</time>
<s>所以在这个过程中</s>
<time>1856_00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,640</time>
<s>只要你在中途做一次检测</s>
<time>1857_00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:37,440</time>
<s>我就可以干预了</s>
<time>1858_00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,760</time>
<s>初期的我可能用一些栓剂</s>
<time>1859_00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:42,840</time>
<s>稍微重视一下</s>
<time>1860_00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:43,920</time>
<s>实在不行我做一个简单的</s>
<time>1861_00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:44,640</time>
<s>原位手术</s>
<time>1862_00:54:45,720 --> 00:54:47,520</time>
<s>我都可以很快把这个就解决掉了</s>
<time>1863_00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:48,240</time>
<s>因为它都是表皮的</s>
<time>1864_00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:49,680</time>
<s>对现在十几岁的这个人</s>
<time>1865_00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:51,480</time>
<s>但是这跟基因有啥关系呢</s>
<time>1866_00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:53,280</time>
<s>基因在里边起什么作用呢</s>
<time>1867_00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:54,360</time>
<s>这个就非常关键</s>
<time>1868_00:54:54,720 --> 00:54:58,680</time>
<s>就是因为这些宫颈的表皮细胞</s>
<time>1869_00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:01,200</time>
<s>能够被HPV（人乳头瘤病毒）病毒侵入</s>
<time>1870_00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:02,640</time>
<s>就跟新冠病毒侵入</s>
<time>1871_00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:04,440</time>
<s>我们的呼吸道上皮细胞是一样的</s>
<time>1872_00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:05,520</time>
<s>只是它是个慢性的</s>
<time>1873_00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:07,320</time>
<s>我查的就是基因</s>
<time>1874_00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:10,200</time>
<s>我是一定要看到宫颈癌的</s>
<time>1875_00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:12,000</time>
<s>引起宫颈癌的这些</s>
<time>1876_00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:15,240</time>
<s>高危型的HPV（人乳头瘤病毒）病毒的基因圆 某 派</s>
<time>1877_00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,400</time>
<s>我才知道这个女性要不要做干预</s>
<time>1878_00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,720</time>
<s>就是通过基因来及早判断</s>
<time>1879_00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,600</time>
<s>某一种癌症的出现</s>
<time>1880_00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:27,120</time>
<s>因为这个就是由感染引起的癌症</s>
<time>1881_00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,360</time>
<s>而且是长期反复持续慢性感染</s>
<time>1882_00:55:30,720 --> 00:55:31,440</time>
<s>所以在这个过程中</s>
<time>1883_00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,240</time>
<s>现在世卫的推荐三年一次</s>
<time>1884_00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:35,760</time>
<s>注射疫苗了也要检测</s>
<time>1885_00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:37,200</time>
<s>如果有问题了立即处理</s>
<time>1886_00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,440</time>
<s>所以2047年我们是有概率</s>
<time>1887_00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:41,160</time>
<s>把这个发病率</s>
<time>1888_00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:42,600</time>
<s>到十万分之四以下了</s>
<time>1889_00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:44,040</time>
<s>因为它现在还是女性的</s>
<time>1890_00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:45,120</time>
<s>第二大杀手</s>
<time>1891_00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:46,200</time>
<s>第一是乳腺癌</s>
<time>1892_00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:46,920</time>
<s>第二是宫颈癌</s>
<time>1893_00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:49,440</time>
<s>但是其他的癌不行</s>
<time>1894_00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:51,240</time>
<s>其他的癌越来越多</s>
<time>1895_00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,400</time>
<s>比如说结直肠癌也是这样子</s>
<time>1896_00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:54,480</time>
<s>结直肠癌以前不是</s>
<time>1897_00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:55,560</time>
<s>要做结直肠镜吗</s>
<time>1898_00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:56,640</time>
<s>现在测粪便</s>
<time>1899_00:55:57,720 --> 00:55:59,160</time>
<s>如果粪便说你是阳性了</s>
<time>1900_00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:00,240</time>
<s>你再做结直肠镜</s>
<time>1901_00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:02,400</time>
<s>这样的话就把原来一百个</s>
<time>1902_00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:03,480</time>
<s>需要做结直肠镜的人</s>
<time>1903_00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:04,560</time>
<s>变成五个了</s>
<time>1904_00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:05,280</time>
<s>你就让那九十五个</s>
<time>1905_00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:06,360</time>
<s>节省了医疗资源</s>
<time>1906_00:56:06,720 --> 00:56:07,440</time>
<s>因为做结直肠镜</s>
<time>1907_00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:09,240</time>
<s>你麻烦医生也麻烦</s>
<time>1908_00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:10,320</time>
<s>还要麻醉师</s>
<time>1909_00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:11,400</time>
<s>还要提前预约</s>
<time>1910_00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:12,480</time>
<s>还要去排空</s>
<time>1911_00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:13,560</time>
<s>还要去不叫住院吧</s>
<time>1912_00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:15,360</time>
<s>至少要占一个诊室</s>
<time>1913_00:56:15,720 --> 00:56:17,520</time>
<s>这些过程其实就因为过去不精准</s>
<time>1914_00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:19,680</time>
<s>现在我给你先筛一道</s>
<time>1915_00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:20,400</time>
<s>还是测基因</s>
<time>1916_00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:22,560</time>
<s>我查的是在这个过程中</s>
<time>1917_00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:24,720</time>
<s>大肠或者结直肠表皮的</s>
<time>1918_00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:26,520</time>
<s>脱落细胞当中的这些基因</s>
<time>1919_00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,760</time>
<s>这些早期可以去做筛查的技术</s>
<time>1920_00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:30,480</time>
<s>不是诊断</s>
<time>1921_00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:31,560</time>
<s>它是一个screening（筛查）</s>
<time>1922_00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:33,360</time>
<s>是一个筛查的技术</s>
<time>1923_00:56:33,720 --> 00:56:35,160</time>
<s>通过这样的一个技术</s>
<time>1924_00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:37,320</time>
<s>我们是能够把目前差不多</s>
<time>1925_00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:38,400</time>
<s>有个七八种肿瘤</s>
<time>1926_00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:40,200</time>
<s>都可以这么做</s>
<time>1927_00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:41,280</time>
<s>就是这个基因</s>
<time>1928_00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:43,800</time>
<s>它意味着一个怎样的一个未来</s>
<time>1929_00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:47,040</time>
<s>是逐渐逐渐我们知道</s>
<time>1930_00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,200</time>
<s>一个基因管哪个</s>
<time>1931_00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:50,280</time>
<s>这个知道得越来越多</s>
<time>1932_00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:52,080</time>
<s>知道了它首先是这个样子</s>
<time>1933_00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:53,880</time>
<s>一个基因对一个蛋白</s>
<time>1934_00:56:54,240 --> 00:56:54,960</time>
<s>因为我们生命法则就是这样</s>
<time>1935_00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:55,680</time>
<s>基因到蛋白</s>
<time>1936_00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:57,840</time>
<s>这是叫生命的中心法则</s>
<time>1937_00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:00,000</time>
<s>上世纪的六七十年代</s>
<time>1938_00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,160</time>
<s>这是一个定论</s>
<time>1939_00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:03,960</time>
<s>后来发现错了</s>
<time>1940_00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:09,360</time>
<s>不是一个基因对一个东西</s>
<time>1941_00:57:09,720 --> 00:57:10,800</time>
<s>这个特别接近于你刚才说的</s>
<time>1942_00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:12,240</time>
<s>它是个网状的拓扑结构</s>
<time>1943_00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:12,960</time>
<s>特别复杂</s>
<time>1944_00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:15,840</time>
<s>你按了葫芦就会起了瓢</s>
<time>1945_00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:18,000</time>
<s>我至今印象深刻</s>
<time>1946_00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:22,320</time>
<s>叫生命总会找到出口</s>
<time>1947_00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:23,400</time>
<s>你不住它的</s>
<time>1948_00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:25,920</time>
<s>你往东来我就往西跑</s>
<time>1949_00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:27,000</time>
<s>反正你慰不住我</s>
<time>1950_00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:29,160</time>
<s>它为什么要三十亿对呢</s>
<time>1951_00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:32,040</time>
<s>人类为什么要三十亿对基因是吧</s>
<time>1952_00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,640</time>
<s>这是一个特别有意思的问题</s>
<time>1953_00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:37,080</time>
<s>其实</s>
<time>1954_00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:37,800</time>
<s>我们也不知道</s>
<time>1955_00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:39,960</time>
<s>我们知道所有的生命</s>
<time>1956_00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:41,760</time>
<s>当演化到一定高等程度的时候</s>
<time>1957_00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:42,840</time>
<s>首先为什么要有性</s>
<time>1958_00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:46,080</time>
<s>按说它要这么神奇</s>
<time>1959_00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:47,880</time>
<s>它没性也行</s>
<time>1960_00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:49,320</time>
<s>就是因为人类已经</s>
<time>1961_00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,120</time>
<s>或者说有些物种太高级了以后</s>
<time>1962_00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:52,920</time>
<s>它基因已经不容易发生重排了</s>
<time>1963_00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:56,160</time>
<s>我们说无性繁殖都是大肠杆菌</s>
<time>1964_00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:57,240</time>
<s>都是病毒</s>
<time>1965_00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,400</time>
<s>都是酵母这种简单的真菌</s>
<time>1966_00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:00,840</time>
<s>它就一传二二传四</s>
<time>1967_00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:03,000</time>
<s>因为大肠杆菌二十分钟就一代</s>
<time>1968_00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:04,080</time>
<s>人二十年才一代</s>
<time>1969_00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:05,880</time>
<s>您的基因突变要出来</s>
<time>1970_00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:06,960</time>
<s>那得什么时候</s>
<time>1971_00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:08,040</time>
<s>最好的方式再找一个</s>
<time>1972_00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:08,760</time>
<s>你们俩混一下</s>
<time>1973_00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:10,920</time>
<s>这把牌不行了</s>
<time>1974_00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:12,000</time>
<s>我们俩就通过一个性别</s>
<time>1975_00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:13,080</time>
<s>大家混一下</s>
<time>1976_00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:13,800</time>
<s>就像我不也是</s>
<time>1977_00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:15,240</time>
<s>满族跟汉族混出来的吗</s>
<time>1978_00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:17,040</time>
<s>那可能就诞生出来一些新的性状</s>
<time>1979_00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:18,840</time>
<s>可能好也可能不好</s>
<time>1980_00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:21,360</time>
<s>但是这个就是保持了</s>
<time>1981_00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:23,520</time>
<s>人类这个基因</s>
<time>1982_00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:24,240</time>
<s>还可以有一个</s>
<time>1983_00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:25,680</time>
<s>保持多样性的一种可能</s>
<time>1984_00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:27,120</time>
<s>所以性本身的存在</s>
<time>1985_00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:28,920</time>
<s>是为了远缘杂交的一个成立</s>
<time>1986_00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,080</time>
<s>是希望这个物种能诞生出</s>
<time>1987_00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:33,240</time>
<s>更加适应环境的某一种性状</s>
<time>1988_00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,120</time>
<s>因为无性繁殖往往它的性状</s>
<time>1989_00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:36,840</time>
<s>是固定的</s>
<time>1990_00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:38,280</time>
<s>因为它能改变的很少</s>
<time>1991_00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:40,800</time>
<s>所以普遍的性压抑对人类不利</s>
<time>1992_00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:41,880</time>
<s>我有一个</s>
<time>1993_00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:42,600</time>
<s>这是对的</s>
<time>1994_00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:43,680</time>
<s>这肯定是对的</s>
<time>1995_00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:45,840</time>
<s>对这个生物的多样化是很不利的</s>
<time>1996_00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:46,560</time>
<s>没错</s>
<time>1997_00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,080</time>
<s>而且就是说这个我还是不知道</s>
<time>1998_00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:50,520</time>
<s>就是它的物质基础</s>
<time>1999_00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:51,960</time>
<s>有时候我很难想象</s>
<time>2000_00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:53,040</time>
<s>就是像咱们说的</s>
<time>2001_00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:54,840</time>
<s>抽象地说</s>
<time>2002_00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:57,000</time>
<s>你们一说就是这里边</s>
<time>2003_00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:58,440</time>
<s>有这个遗传密码</s>
<time>2004_00:58:58,800 --> 00:58:59,160</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>2005_00:58:59,520 --> 00:58:59,880</time>
<s>有这个信息</s>
<time>2006_00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:00,600</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>2007_00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:02,400</time>
<s>可是当然这在电脑里说</s>
<time>2008_00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:03,120</time>
<s>我们能理解</s>
<time>2009_00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:04,920</time>
<s>那它是真的在电脑芯片上</s>
<time>2010_00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,080</time>
<s>它能可以蚀刻还是什么</s>
<time>2011_00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:08,160</time>
<s>它有这个东西</s>
<time>2012_00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:09,960</time>
<s>但是对人来说</s>
<time>2013_00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,840</time>
<s>它那个信息的物质载体是什么</s>
<time>2014_00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:14,640</time>
<s>为什么一个东西</s>
<time>2015_00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:16,800</time>
<s>它是谁听见这个信息</s>
<time>2016_00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:18,240</time>
<s>我们可以这么去理解</s>
<time>2017_00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:20,040</time>
<s>就是比如说我们就拿芯片来讲</s>
<time>2018_00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:22,920</time>
<s>你说一个晶体管就是零和一</s>
<time>2019_00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:24,000</time>
<s>了不起加了半导体</s>
<time>2020_00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:25,080</time>
<s>就是一个三态</s>
<time>2021_00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,600</time>
<s>还有一个中间的半导就是三态</s>
<time>2022_00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:29,040</time>
<s>这个玩意儿怎么就会有智能呢</s>
<time>2023_00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:29,760</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>2024_00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:31,200</time>
<s>就是它累积多了以后</s>
<time>2025_00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:33,720</time>
<s>我们叫这就是Emerge（涌现）</s>
<time>2026_00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:35,160</time>
<s>就是涌现</s>
<time>2027_00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:36,960</time>
<s>这个词在物理上在哲学上</s>
<time>2028_00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:38,040</time>
<s>就是把一个东西简单从</s>
<time>2029_00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:39,840</time>
<s>到一定程度上讲</s>
<time>2030_00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:42,360</time>
<s>它就突然诞生了这个原来没有的</s>
<time>2031_00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:43,080</time>
<s>一种性状</s>
<time>2032_00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:47,760</time>
<s>这个你知道就是我看过一个片子</s>
<time>2033_00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:49,920</time>
<s>就是讲这个意识是怎么产生的</s>
<time>2034_00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,080</time>
<s>就是这个为什么这个大脑</s>
<time>2035_00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,960</time>
<s>突然间就产生了一个意识</s>
<time>2036_00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:57,120</time>
<s>你知道它有一个很有趣的比喻</s>
<time>2037_00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:00,000</time>
<s>就是说当然这是学说之一</s>
<time>2038_01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:02,160</time>
<s>就是说你可以想一想</s>
<time>2039_01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:03,960</time>
<s>城市是怎么形成的</s>
<time>2040_01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:05,040</time>
<s>就比如说</s>
<time>2041_01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:07,200</time>
<s>可能一开始就是一个驿站</s>
<time>2042_01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:09,000</time>
<s>也没有一个城市</s>
<time>2043_01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:09,720</time>
<s>对</s>
<time>2044_01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:12,240</time>
<s>城市也不是说是根据谁的命令</s>
<time>2045_01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,040</time>
<s>它是在千百万年</s>
<time>2046_01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:15,840</time>
<s>越聚越多</s>
<time>2047_01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:17,280</time>
<s>这就像人的大脑</s>
<time>2048_01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:19,080</time>
<s>最初有一个脑干</s>
<time>2049_01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:20,160</time>
<s>有一个很简单的</s>
<time>2050_01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:21,960</time>
<s>像爬行动物的脑</s>
<time>2051_01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:23,760</time>
<s>然后你看你随着进化</s>
<time>2052_01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:24,840</time>
<s>皮层</s>
<time>2053_01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:27,000</time>
<s>他就说城市从什么时候</s>
<time>2054_01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:28,080</time>
<s>有了自我意识</s>
<time>2055_01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:29,880</time>
<s>就等于最早也没有城市</s>
<time>2056_01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:31,320</time>
<s>可能就一个地方一个路口</s>
<time>2057_01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:32,760</time>
<s>有一个房子</s>
<time>2058_01:00:34,200 --> 01:00:34,920</time>
<s>等一个东西</s>
<time>2059_01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:38,160</time>
<s>就是加到足够多的数量的时候</s>
<time>2060_01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:41,760</time>
<s>诞生了最重要的这个词</s>
<time>2061_01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:43,920</time>
<s>就是自我意识</s>
<time>2062_01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:45,000</time>
<s>就你突然觉得</s>
<time>2063_01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:46,800</time>
<s>城市就有了智能</s>
<time>2064_01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:48,240</time>
<s>实际上一个现代的城市</s>
<time>2065_01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:50,040</time>
<s>我们在历史上看</s>
<time>2066_01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:51,120</time>
<s>因为我们从农业社会到现在</s>
<time>2067_01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:52,200</time>
<s>就是一万年</s>
<time>2068_01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:54,720</time>
<s>什么样的城市</s>
<time>2069_01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:56,160</time>
<s>才算是一个现代的城市</s>
<time>2070_01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:56,880</time>
<s>至少要有十万人</s>
<time>2071_01:00:58,320 --> 01:00:59,040</time>
<s>一个传染病的最小爆发群体</s>
<time>2072_01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:00,120</time>
<s>是五十万人</s>
<time>2073_01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:02,640</time>
<s>低于这个数字传染病都没有</s>
<time>2074_01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:05,160</time>
<s>因为根本就没有那么多人</s>
<time>2075_01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:06,600</time>
<s>可以供你去传出去</s>
<time>2076_01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,120</time>
<s>就是这个数到了一个临界点之后</s>
<time>2077_01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:10,920</time>
<s>忽然而有了一种</s>
<time>2078_01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:12,000</time>
<s>这就是毕达哥拉斯的</s>
<time>2079_01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:13,080</time>
<s>“万物皆数"</s>
<time>2080_01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:14,880</time>
<s>所以你看老鼠</s>
<time>2081_01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:17,040</time>
<s>我们说它的神经元七千万个</s>
<time>2082_01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:18,840</time>
<s>猴子是六十亿个</s>
<time>2083_01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:21,000</time>
<s>人类是八百六十亿个</s>
<time>2084_01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:22,800</time>
<s>八百六十亿个</s>
<time>2085_01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:24,240</time>
<s>所以我们差不多是猴子的</s>
<time>2086_01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:25,680</time>
<s>大约就是十四倍</s>
<time>2087_01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:27,840</time>
<s>那老鼠才七千万个</s>
<time>2088_01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:29,640</time>
<s>你至少是老鼠的上千倍</s>
<time>2089_01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:31,800</time>
<s>所以你当然就涌现出了特别多的</s>
<time>2090_01:01:32,160 --> 01:01:32,880</time>
<s>所谓的智能</s>
<time>2091_01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:33,960</time>
<s>但是就说生命</s>
<time>2092_01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:35,760</time>
<s>我就是说为什么要通过</s>
<time>2093_01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:38,280</time>
<s>这样一种DNA（脱氧核糖核酸）的这个方式圆桌派</s>
<time>2094_01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:40,800</time>
<s>因为我听过一个人打一个比方</s>
<time>2095_01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:42,600</time>
<s>当然不知道他说得对不对</s>
<time>2096_01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:45,840</time>
<s>就是说说是这个各种情况下</s>
<time>2097_01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:48,000</time>
<s>这个地球上的各种因素</s>
<time>2098_01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:51,240</time>
<s>能够产生到人类这样的这个生命</s>
<time>2099_01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:52,680</time>
<s>他说好有一比</s>
<time>2100_01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:54,480</time>
<s>这个概率就像是什么呢</s>
<time>2101_01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:56,280</time>
<s>说是在一个操场上</s>
<time>2102_01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,160</time>
<s>撒满了这个汽车零件</s>
<time>2103_01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:01,320</time>
<s>然后一个龙卷风</s>
<time>2104_01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:03,480</time>
<s>把这个零件吹起来</s>
<time>2105_01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:05,280</time>
<s>等它落下来的时候</s>
<time>2106_01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:07,080</time>
<s>就已经组装成了一架汽车</s>
<time>2107_01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:09,240</time>
<s>这是可能的吗</s>
<time>2108_01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:10,320</time>
<s>要看多久</s>
<time>2109_01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:13,200</time>
<s>这个过程是三十四亿年</s>
<time>2110_01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:16,440</time>
<s>三十四亿年就能让一堆汽车零件</s>
<time>2111_01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:18,240</time>
<s>在风中自行组合成一辆车</s>
<time>2112_01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:21,120</time>
<s>就是说这是起点和终点</s>
<time>2113_01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:24,360</time>
<s>被简单说成了好像这两个之间</s>
<time>2114_01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:25,440</time>
<s>就是一个严格关联的</s>
<time>2115_01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,960</time>
<s>实际上首先说</s>
<time>2116_01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:29,400</time>
<s>我们今天的生命</s>
<time>2117_01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:31,200</time>
<s>是不是一定是地球原生的</s>
<time>2118_01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:32,280</time>
<s>我也不知道</s>
<time>2119_01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:33,360</time>
<s>有可能外边来的</s>
<time>2120_01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:34,080</time>
<s>这也可能是</s>
<time>2121_01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:35,160</time>
<s>但是即使在外面来</s>
<time>2122_01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:36,600</time>
<s>宇宙如果我们今天观测</s>
<time>2123_01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:38,040</time>
<s>一百四十六亿年</s>
<time>2124_01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:39,120</time>
<s>在这个过程中</s>
<time>2125_01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:40,560</time>
<s>有几个证据可以很好地</s>
<time>2126_01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:43,080</time>
<s>能够验证刚才讲的这个道理</s>
<time>2127_01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:45,240</time>
<s>首先它可能</s>
