Key_AJ0 Takeaway_NN1 
We_PNP assess_VVB that_CJT climate_NN1 change_NN1 will_VM0 increasingly_AV0 exacerbate_VVI risks_NN2 to_PRP US_NP0 national_AJ0 security_NN1 interests_NN2 as_PRP the_AT0 physical_AJ0 impacts_NN2 increase_NN1 and_CJC geopolitical_AJ0 tensions_NN2 mount_VVB about_PRP how_AVQ to_TO0 respond_VVI to_PRP the_AT0 challenge_NN1 ._SENT Global_AJ0 momentum_NN1 is_VBZ growing_AJ0 for_PRP more_DT0 ambitious_AJ0 greenhouse_NN1 gas_NN1 emissions_NN2 reductions_NN2 ,_PUN but_CJC current_AJ0 policies_NN2 and_CJC pledges_NN2 are_VBB insufficient_AJ0 to_TO0 meet_VVI the_AT0 Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 goals_NN2 ._SENT Countries_NN2 are_VBB arguing_VVG about_PRP who_PNQ should_VM0 act_VVI sooner_AV0 and_CJC competing_VVG to_TO0 control_VVI the_AT0 growing_AJ0 clean_AJ0 energy_NN1 transition_NN1 ._SENT Intensifying_VVG physical_AJ0 effects_NN2 will_VM0 exacerbate_VVI geopolitical_AJ0 flashpoints_NN2 ,_PUN particularly_AV0 after_PRP 2030_CRD ,_PUN and_CJC key_AJ0 countries_NN2 and_CJC regions_NN2 will_VM0 face_VVI increasing_AJ0 risks_NN2 of_PRF instability_NN1 and_CJC need_VVB for_PRP humanitarian_AJ0 assistance_NN1 ._SENT 
•_PUN Asabaseline_NP0 ,_PUN theICusestheUSFederalScientificcommunity'shighconfidenceinglobalprojectionsof_NP0 temperature_NN1 increase_NN1 and_CJC moderate_AJ0 confidence_NN1 in_PRP regional_AJ0 projections_NN2 of_PRF the_AT0 intensity_NN1 of_PRF extreme_AJ0 weather_NN1 and_CJC other_AJ0 effects_NN2 during_PRP the_AT0 next_ORD two_CRD decades_NN2 ._SENT Global_AJ0 temperatures_NN2 have_VHB increased_VVN 1.1_CRD ̊C_NN1 since_PRP pre-industrial_AJ0 times_NN2 and_CJC most_AV0 likely_AJ0 will_VM0 add_VVI 0.4_CRD ̊C_NN1 to_TO0 reach_VVI 1.5_CRD ̊C_NN1 around_PRP 2030._CRD 
•_PUN TheIChasmoderateconfidenceinthepaceofdecarbonizationandlowtomoderateconfidenceinhow_NP0 physical_AJ0 climate_NN1 impacts_NN2 will_VM0 affect_VVI US_NP0 national_AJ0 security_NN1 interests_NN2 and_CJC the_AT0 nature_NN1 of_PRF geopolitical_AJ0 conflict_NN1 ,_PUN given_VVN the_AT0 complex_AJ0 dimensions_NN2 of_PRF human_AJ0 and_CJC state_NN1 decisionmaking_NN1 ._SENT 
Key_AJ0 Judgment_NN1 1_CRD :_PUN Geopolitical_AJ0 tensions_NN2 are_VBB likely_AJ0 to_TO0 grow_VVI as_PRP countries_NN2 increasingly_AV0 argue_VVB about_PRP how_AVQ to_TO0 accelerate_VVI the_AT0 reductions_NN2 in_PRP net_AJ0 greenhouse_NN1 gas_NN1 emissions_NN2 that_CJT will_VM0 be_VBI needed_VVN to_TO0 meet_VVI the_AT0 Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 goals_NN2 ._SENT Debate_NN1 will_VM0 center_NN1 on_PRP who_PNQ bears_VVZ more_DT0 responsibility_NN1 to_TO0 act_VVI and_CJC to_TO0 pay_VVI —_PUN and_CJC how_AVQ quickly_AV0 —_PUN and_CJC countries_NN2 will_VM0 compete_VVI to_TO0 control_VVI resources_NN2 and_CJC dominate_VVB new_AJ0 technologies_NN2 needed_VVN for_PRP the_AT0 clean_AJ0 energy_NN1 transition_NN1 ._SENT Most_DT0 countries_NN2 will_VM0 face_VVI difficult_AJ0 economic_AJ0 choices_NN2 and_CJC probably_AV0 will_VM0 count_VVI on_PRP technological_AJ0 breakthroughs_NN2 to_TO0 rapidly_AV0 reduce_VVI their_DPS net_AJ0 emissions_NN2 later_AV0 ._SENT China_NP0 and_CJC India_NP0 will_VM0 play_VVI critical_AJ0 roles_NN2 in_PRP determining_VVG the_AT0 trajectory_NN1 of_PRF temperature_NN1 rise_NN1 ._SENT 
Key_AJ0 Judgment_NN1 2_CRD :_PUN The_AT0 increasing_AJ0 physical_AJ0 effects_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 change_NN1 are_VBB likely_AJ0 to_TO0 exacerbate_VVI cross-border_AJ0 geopolitical_AJ0 flashpoints_NN2 as_CJS states_NN2 take_VVB steps_NN2 to_TO0 secure_VVI their_DPS interests_NN2 ._SENT The_AT0 reduction_NN1 in_PRP sea_NN1 ice_NN1 already_AV0 is_VBZ amplifying_VVG strategic_AJ0 competition_NN1 in_PRP the_AT0 Arctic_AJ0 over_PRP access_NN1 to_PRP its_DPS natural_AJ0 resources_NN2 ._SENT Elsewhere_AV0 ,_PUN as_CJS temperatures_NN2 rise_VVB and_CJC more_AV0 extreme_AJ0 effects_NN2 manifest_VVB ,_PUN there_EX0 is_VBZ a_AT0 growing_AJ0 risk_NN1 of_PRF conflict_NN1 over_PRP water_NN1 and_CJC migration_NN1 ,_PUN particularly_AV0 after_PRP 2030_CRD ,_PUN and_CJC an_AT0 increasing_AJ0 chance_NN1 that_CJT countries_NN2 will_VM0 unilaterally_AV0 test_VVI and_CJC deploy_VVI large-scale_AJ0 solar_AJ0 geoengineering_NN1 —_PUN creating_VVG a_AT0 new_AJ0 area_NN1 of_PRF disputes_NN2 ._SENT 
Key_AJ0 Judgment_NN1 3_CRD :_PUN Scientific_AJ0 forecasts_NN2 indicate_VVB that_CJT intensifying_VVG physical_AJ0 effects_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 change_VVB out_AVP to_PRP 2040_CRD and_CJC beyond_AV0 will_VM0 be_VBI most_AV0 acutely_AV0 felt_VVN in_PRP developing_AJ0 countries_NN2 ,_PUN which_DTQ we_PNP assess_VVB are_VBB also_AV0 the_AT0 least_AV0 able_AJ0 to_TO0 adapt_VVI to_PRP such_DT0 changes_NN2 ._SENT These_DT0 physical_AJ0 effects_NN2 will_VM0 increase_VVI the_AT0 potential_NN1 for_PRP instability_NN1 and_CJC possibly_AV0 internal_AJ0 conflict_NN1 in_PRP these_DT0 countries_NN2 ,_PUN in_PRP some_DT0 cases_NN2 creating_VVG additional_AJ0 demands_NN2 on_PRP US_NP0 diplomatic_AJ0 ,_PUN economic_AJ0 ,_PUN humanitarian_AJ0 ,_PUN and_CJC military_AJ0 resources_NN2 ._SENT Despite_PRP geographic_AJ0 and_CJC financial_AJ0 resource_NN1 advantages_NN2 ,_PUN the_AT0 United_AJ0 States_NN2 and_CJC partners_NN2 face_VVB costly_AJ0 challenges_NN2 that_CJT will_VM0 become_VVI more_AV0 difficult_AJ0 to_TO0 manage_VVI without_PRP concerted_AJ0 effort_NN1 to_TO0 reduce_VVI emissions_NN2 and_CJC cap_NN1 warming_NN1 ._SENT 
Scope_NN1 Note_NN1 
This_DT0 National_AJ0 Intelligence_NN1 Estimate_NN1 (_PUL NIE_NP0 )_PUR is_VBZ in_PRP response_NN1 to_PRP a_AT0 Presidential_AJ0 tasking_NN1 to_TO0 assess_VVI the_AT0 national_AJ0 security_NN1 impacts_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 change_NN1 ._SENT While_CJS climate_NN1 change_NN1 effects_NN2 are_VBB forecast_VVN to_TO0 intensify_VVI in_PRP the_AT0 latter_DT0 half_NN1 of_PRF the_AT0 21st_ORD century_NN1 and_CJC continue_VVB well_AV0 beyond_PRP 2100_CRD ,_PUN based_VVN on_PRP current_AJ0 emissions_NN2 trends_NN2 and_CJC technologies_NN2 ,_PUN this_DT0 NIE_NN1 assesses_VVZ the_AT0 near-_NN1 (_PUL 5_CRD –_PUN 10_CRD years_NN2 )_PUR and_CJC medium-term_AJ0 (_PUL 10_CRD –_PUN 20_CRD years_NN2 )_PUR geopolitical_AJ0 implications_NN2 abroad_AV0 —_PUN we_PNP do_VDB not_XX0 assess_VVI impacts_NN2 to_PRP the_AT0 homeland_NN1 or_CJC DOD_NP0 facilities_NN2 ._SENT We_PNP assume_VVB the_AT0 following_NN1 during_PRP the_AT0 next_ORD 20_CRD years_NN2 :_PUN 
•_PUN No_AT0 precipitating_AJ0 world_NN1 event_NN1 that_CJT would_VM0 devastate_VVI industrial_AJ0 activity_NN1 will_VM0 occur_VVI that_CJT sharply_AV0 and_CJC permanently_AV0 reduces_VVZ greenhouse_NN1 gas_NN1 emissions_NN2 ._SENT 
The_AT0 scientific_AJ0 content_NN1 of_PRF this_DT0 NIE_NN1 ,_PUN both_AV0 the_AT0 observed_AJ0 climate_NN1 effects_NN2 to_PRP date_NN1 and_CJC the_AT0 modeled_VVN future_NN1 impacts_NN2 ,_PUN were_VBD reviewed_VVN by_PRP the_AT0 US_NP0 Federal_AJ0 science_NN1 agencies_NN2 on_PRP the_AT0 Climate_NN1 Security_NN1 Advisory_AJ0 Council_NN1 (_PUL CSAC_NP0 )_PUR ._SENT The_AT0 CSAC_NN1 is_VBZ a_AT0 partnership_NN1 between_PRP the_AT0 IC_NN1 and_CJC the_AT0 Federal_AJ0 science_NN1 community_NN1 established_VVN by_PRP Congress_NN1 to_TO0 better_AV0 understand_VVI and_CJC anticipate_VVI the_AT0 ways_NN2 climate_NN1 change_NN1 affects_VVZ US_NP0 national_AJ0 security_NN1 interests_NN2 ._SENT It_PNP includes_VVZ the_AT0 Environmental_AJ0 Protection_NN1 Agency_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 Department_NN1 of_PRF Energy_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 Department_NN1 of_PRF the_AT0 Interior_NN1 /_PUN US_NP0 Geological_AJ0 Survey_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 Office_NN1 of_PRF Naval_AJ0 Research_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 National_AJ0 Aeronautics_NN1 and_CJC Space_NN1 Administration_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 National_AJ0 Oceanic_AJ0 and_CJC Atmospheric_AJ0 Administration_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC the_AT0 National_AJ0 Science_NN1 Foundation_NN1 ._SENT 
The_AT0 IC_NN1 relies_VVZ on_PRP the_AT0 broad_AJ0 consensus_NN1 of_PRF scientific_AJ0 studies_NN2 ,_PUN modeling_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC forecasts_NN2 from_PRP the_AT0 Intergovernmental_AJ0 Panel_NN1 on_PRP Climate_NN1 Change_NN1 ,_PUN the_AT0 US_NP0 National_AJ0 Climate_NN1 Assessment_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC US_NP0 Federal_AJ0 science_NN1 agencies_NN2 as_PRP the_AT0 baseline_NN1 to_TO0 assess_VVI the_AT0 geopolitical_AJ0 implications_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 change_NN1 ._SENT We_PNP are_VBB aware_AJ0 of_PRF ,_PUN but_CJC in_PRP this_DT0 estimate_NN1 do_VDB not_XX0 rely_VVI on_AVP ,_PUN the_AT0 small_AJ0 minority_NN1 scientific_AJ0 perspectives_NN2 on_PRP climate_NN1 change_NN1 ranging_VVG from_PRP those_DT0 who_PNQ consider_VVB it_PNP nonexistent_AJ0 to_PRP those_DT0 who_PNQ view_VVB it_PNP as_PRP a_AT0 near-term_AJ0 existential_AJ0 threat_NN1 to_PRP humanity_NN1 ._SENT 
Confidence_NN1 Levels_NN2 
The_AT0 IC_NN1 uses_VVZ as_PRP a_AT0 baseline_NN1 the_AT0 US_NP0 Federal_AJ0 scientific_AJ0 community_NN1 's_POS high_AJ0 confidence_NN1 in_PRP global_AJ0 projections_NN2 of_PRF temperature_NN1 increase_NN1 and_CJC moderate_AJ0 confidence_NN1 in_PRP regional_AJ0 projections_NN2 of_PRF the_AT0 intensity_NN1 of_PRF extreme_AJ0 weather_NN1 and_CJC other_AJ0 effects_NN2 during_PRP the_AT0 next_ORD two_CRD decades_NN2 ._SENT 
The_AT0 IC_NN1 has_VHZ moderate_AJ0 confidence_NN1 in_PRP the_AT0 pace_NN1 of_PRF decarbonizing_VVG the_AT0 energy_NN1 sector_NN1 ,_PUN given_VVN how_AVQ historically_AV0 entrenched_AJ0 and_CJC slow_AJ0 moving_AJ0 energy_NN1 systems_NN2 have_VHB been_VBN to_PRP change_NN1 and_CJC the_AT0 difficulty_NN1 of_PRF predicting_VVG technological_AJ0 breakthroughs_NN2 ._SENT Our_DPS confidence_NN1 decreases_VVZ after_PRP 2030_CRD because_CJS government_NN1 and_CJC private_AJ0 sector_NN1 policies_NN2 and_CJC investments_NN2 have_VHB the_AT0 potential_NN1 to_TO0 drive_VVI a_AT0 more_AV0 rapid_AJ0 transition_NN1 ._SENT 
The_AT0 IC_NN1 has_VHZ low_AJ0 to_TO0 moderate_VVI confidence_NN1 in_PRP assessing_VVG how_AVQ climate_NN1 change_NN1 effects_NN2 could_VM0 cascade_VVI in_PRP ways_NN2 that_CJT affect_VVB US_NP0 national_AJ0 security_NN1 interests_NN2 as_CJS well_AV0 as_CJS the_AT0 timing_NN1 and_CJC location_NN1 of_PRF potential_AJ0 geopolitical_AJ0 tension_NN1 ,_PUN given_VVN the_AT0 complex_AJ0 dimensions_NN2 of_PRF human_AJ0 and_CJC state_NN1 decisionmaking_NN1 and_CJC the_AT0 challenge_NN1 of_PRF connecting_AJ0 climate_NN1 ,_PUN weather_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC sociopolitical_AJ0 models_NN2 ._SENT 
Discussion_NN1 
Reports_NN2 from_PRP US_NP0 Federal_AJ0 science_NN1 agencies_NN2 and_CJC the_AT0 Intergovernmental_AJ0 Panel_NN1 on_PRP Climate_NN1 Change_NN1 (_PUL IPCC_NP0 )_PUR indicate_VVB that_CJT the_AT0 burning_NN1 of_PRF fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 has_VHZ increased_VVN the_AT0 concentration_NN1 of_PRF greenhouse_NN1 gases_NN2 in_PRP the_AT0 atmosphere_NN1 and_CJC raised_VVD global_AJ0 average_AJ0 surface_NN1 temperatures_NN2 about_AV0 
1.1_CRD degrees_NN2 Celsius_NN0 (_PUL °_NN0 C_ZZ0 )_PUR over_PRP pre-industrial_AJ0 levels_NN2 ._SENT Temperature_NN1 rise_NN1 has_VHZ accelerated_VVN ,_PUN and_CJC every_AT0 decade_NN1 since_PRP the_AT0 1960s_CRD has_VHZ been_VBN hotter_AJC than_CJS the_AT0 previous_AJ0 one_PNI ,_PUN according_VVG to_PRP the_AT0 National_AJ0 Aeronautics_NN1 and_CJC Space_NN1 Administration_NN1 ._SENT 
International_AJ0 diplomatic_AJ0 efforts_NN2 since_PRP the_AT0 late_AJ0 1980s_CRD have_VHB centered_VVN on_PRP understanding_VVG and_CJC mitigating_VVG the_AT0 effects_NN2 a_AT0 changing_AJ0 climate_NN1 poses_VVZ to_PRP human_AJ0 security_NN1 ._SENT The_AT0 2015_CRD Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 for_PRP the_AT0 first_ORD time_NN1 established_VVD a_AT0 global_AJ0 goal_NN1 of_PRF limiting_AJ0 temperature_NN1 rise_NN1 to_PRP "_PUQ well_AV0 below_AV0 2_CRD ̊C_NN1 above_PRP pre-industrial_AJ0 levels_NN2 and_CJC pursuing_VVG efforts_NN2 to_TO0 limit_VVI the_AT0 temperature_NN1 increase_NN1 to_PRP 1.5_CRD ̊C_NN1 "_PUQ by_PRP 2100_CRD ,_PUN concluding_VVG that_CJT this_DT0 would_VM0 "_PUQ significantly_AV0 reduce_VVB the_AT0 risks_NN2 and_CJC impacts_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 change_NN1 ._SENT "_PUQ US_NP0 Government_NN1 and_CJC other_AJ0 scientists_NN2 argue_VVB that_CJT the_AT0 risks_NN2 grow_VVB as_PRP the_AT0 temperature_NN1 rises_VVZ and_CJC could_VM0 be_VBI catastrophic_AJ0 and_CJC nonlinear_AJ0 after_PRP 2_CRD ̊C_NN1 if_CJS there_EX0 are_VBB tipping_VVG points_NN2 in_PRP the_AT0 Earth_NN1 's_POS system_NN1 ._SENT (_PUL See_VVB Annex_NN1 B_ZZ0 ._SENT )_PUR 
•_PUN In_PRP the_AT0 Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 ,_PUN more_AV0 than_CJS 190_CRD countries_NN2 agreed_VVD to_TO0 submit_VVI updated_AJ0 plans_NN2 —_PUN known_VVN as_PRP Nationally_AV0 Determined_AJ0 Contributions_NN2 (_PUL NDC_NP0 )_PUR —_PUN every_AT0 five_CRD years_NN2 that_CJT should_VM0 outline_VVI increased_AJ0 commitments_NN2 to_TO0 peak_VVI and_CJC reduce_VVI their_DPS emissions_NN2 ._SENT NDCs_NN2 are_VBB voluntary_AJ0 and_CJC have_VHB no_AT0 enforcement_NN1 mechanism_NN1 for_PRP non-compliance_NN1 ._SENT 
•_PUN Developing_AJ0 countries_NN2 –_PUN –_PUN which_DTQ have_VHB long_AV0 argued_VVN that_CJT they_PNP should_VM0 not_XX0 have_VHI to_TO0 limit_VVI emissions_NN2 because_CJS they_PNP were_VBD late_AJ0 in_PRP industrializing_VVG ,_PUN need_VVB to_TO0 use_VVI fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 to_TO0 grow_VVI economically_AV0 ,_PUN and_CJC have_VHB historically_AV0 emitted_VVN fewer_DT0 greenhouse_NN1 gases_NN2 –_PUN –_PUN signed_VVD on_AVP to_PRP the_AT0 Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 in_PRP part_NN1 because_CJS it_PNP did_VDD not_XX0 require_VVI country-specific_AJ0 emissions_NN2 reduction_NN1 targets_NN2 ._SENT In_PRP addition_NN1 ,_PUN developed_AJ0 countries_NN2 pledged_VVD to_TO0 mobilize_VVI $_NN0 100_CRD billion_CRD a_AT0 year_NN1 by_PRP 2020_CRD to_TO0 help_VVI developing_AJ0 countries_NN2 mitigate_VVB and_CJC adapt_VVB to_PRP climate_NN1 change_NN1 ._SENT 
Pressure_NN1 To_PRP Decarbonize_NP0 Will_NP0 Increase_VVB Geopolitical_AJ0 Tensions_NN2 
Key_AJ0 Judgment_NN1 1_CRD :_PUN Geopolitical_AJ0 tensions_NN2 are_VBB likely_AJ0 to_TO0 grow_VVI as_PRP countries_NN2 increasingly_AV0 argue_VVB about_PRP how_AVQ to_TO0 accelerate_VVI the_AT0 reductions_NN2 in_PRP net_AJ0 greenhouse_NN1 gas_NN1 emissions_NN2 needed_VVD to_TO0 meet_VVI Paris_NP0 Agreement_NN1 goals_NN2 ._SENT Debate_NN1 will_VM0 center_NN1 on_PRP who_PNQ bears_VVZ more_DT0 responsibility_NN1 to_TO0 act_VVI and_CJC to_TO0 pay_VVI —_PUN and_CJC how_AVQ quickly_AV0 —_PUN and_CJC countries_NN2 will_VM0 compete_VVI to_TO0 control_VVI resources_NN2 and_CJC dominate_VVB new_AJ0 technologies_NN2 required_VVN for_PRP the_AT0 clean_AJ0 energy_NN1 transition_NN1 ._SENT 
Most_DT0 countries_NN2 will_VM0 face_VVI difficult_AJ0 economic_AJ0 choices_NN2 and_CJC probably_AV0 will_VM0 count_VVI on_PRP technological_AJ0 breakthroughs_NN2 to_TO0 rapidly_AV0 reduce_VVI their_DPS net_AJ0 emissions_NN2 later_AV0 ._SENT China_NP0 and_CJC India_NP0 will_VM0 play_VVI critical_AJ0 roles_NN2 in_PRP determining_VVG the_AT0 trajectory_NN1 of_PRF temperature_NN1 rise_NN1 ._SENT 
Policies_NN2 Not_XX0 Driving_VVG Decarbonization_NN1 Fast_AV0 Enough_AV0 
Given_AJ0 current_AJ0 government_NN1 policies_NN2 and_CJC trends_NN2 in_PRP technology_NN1 development_NN1 ,_PUN we_PNP judge_VVB that_CJT collectively_AV0 countries_NN2 are_VBB unlikely_AJ0 to_TO0 meet_VVI the_AT0 Paris_NP0 goals_NN2 because_CJS high-emitting_AJ0 countries_NN2 would_VM0 have_VHI to_TO0 make_VVI rapid_AJ0 progress_NN1 toward_PRP decarbonizing_VVG their_DPS energy_NN1 systems_NN2 by_PRP transitioning_VVG away_AV0 from_PRP fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 within_PRP the_AT0 next_ORD decade_NN1 ,_PUN whereas_CJS developing_AJ0 countries_NN2 would_VM0 need_VVI to_TO0 rely_VVI on_PRP low-carbon_AJ0 energy_NN1 sources_NN2 for_PRP their_DPS economic_AJ0 development_NN1 ._SENT Quickening_VVG the_AT0 pace_NN1 and_CJC trajectory_NN1 of_PRF the_AT0 energy_NN1 transition_NN1 will_VM0 depend_VVI on_PRP reducing_VVG key_AJ0 countries_NN2 '_POS continued_AJ0 dependence_NN1 on_PRP fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 ;_PUN investing_VVG in_PRP research_NN1 ,_PUN development_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC deployment_NN1 of_PRF low-carbon_AJ0 technologies_NN2 for_PRP specific_AJ0 sectors_NN2 that_CJT are_VBB hard_AJ0 to_TO0 decarbonize_VVI ;_PUN and_CJC enacting_VVG policies_NN2 to_TO0 incentivize_VVI renewable_AJ0 energy_NN1 sources_NN2 ._SENT 
The_AT0 current_AJ0 pace_NN1 of_PRF transition_NN1 to_PRP low-_AJ0 or_CJC zero-emission_AJ0 clean_AJ0 energy_NN1 sources_NN2 is_VBZ not_XX0 fast_AJ0 enough_AV0 to_TO0 avoid_VVI temperatures_NN2 rising_VVG above_PRP the_AT0 Paris_NP0 goal_NN1 of_PRF 1.5_CRD ̊C_NN1 ._SENT Global_AJ0 energy_NN1 demand_NN1 is_VBZ expected_VVN to_TO0 increase_VVI by_PRP more_AV0 than_CJS 18_CRD percent_NN0 by_PRP 2040_CRD ,_PUN according_VVG to_PRP the_AT0 International_AJ0 Energy_NN1 Agency_NN1 's_POS (_PUL IEA_NP0 )_PUR modeling_NN1 of_PRF current_AJ0 policies_NN2 ,_PUN with_PRP fossil_NN1 fuel_NN1 use_VVB also_AV0 growing_AJ0 and_CJC continuing_AJ0 to_TO0 account_VVI for_PRP only_AV0 a_AT0 modestly_AV0 smaller_AJC share_NN1 of_PRF supply_NN1 even_AV0 though_CJS solar_AJ0 ,_PUN wind_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC other_AJ0 clean_AJ0 sources_NN2 will_VM0 grow_VVI more_AV0 quickly_AV0 ,_PUN particularly_AV0 after_PRP 2030._CRD 
•_PUN To_TO0 achieve_VVI the_AT0 1.5_CRD ̊C_NN1 goal_NN1 through_PRP shifts_NN2 in_PRP energy_NN1 ,_PUN coal_NN1 use_NN1 would_VM0 need_VVI to_TO0 decline_VVI ,_PUN oil_NN1 use_NN1 would_VM0 need_VVI to_TO0 fall_VVI immediately_AV0 rather_AV0 than_CJS plateau_NN1 in_PRP the_AT0 2030s_CRD ,_PUN and_CJC natural_AJ0 gas_NN1 consumption_NN1 would_VM0 have_VHI to_TO0 peak_VVI this_DT0 decade_NN1 ,_PUN according_VVG to_PRP IEA_NP0 data_NN0 and_CJC modeling_NN1 ._SENT 
•_PUN Fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 will_VM0 be_VBI difficult_AJ0 to_TO0 replace_VVI because_CJS the_AT0 large_AJ0 sunk_AJ0 costs_NN2 of_PRF established_AJ0 production_NN1 systems_NN2 make_VVB them_PNP competitively_AV0 priced_AJ0 ,_PUN existing_AJ0 distribution_NN1 networks_NN2 offer_VVB advantages_NN2 of_PRF flexibility_NN1 and_CJC reach_NN1 ,_PUN and_CJC scaling_VVG alternatives_NN2 to_PRP the_AT0 level_NN1 necessary_AJ0 to_TO0 replace_VVI them_PNP is_VBZ difficult_AJ0 ._SENT Industrial_AJ0 and_CJC transportation_NN1 sectors_NN2 will_VM0 struggle_VVI to_TO0 reduce_VVI their_DPS reliance_NN1 on_PRP fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 because_CJS these_DT0 sectors_NN2 are_VBB the_AT0 most_AV0 dependent_AJ0 on_PRP the_AT0 high_AJ0 energy_NN1 density_NN1 that_CJT fossil_NN1 fuels_NN2 provide_VVB ._SENT 
•_PUN Solar_AJ0 photovoltaic_AJ0 and_CJC wind_NN1 generation_NN1 almost_AV0 certainly_AV0 will_VM0 increase_VVI worldwide_AV0 because_CJS they_PNP are_VBB on_PRP average_NN1 the_AT0 cheapest_AJS form_NN1 of_PRF energy_NN1 to_TO0 add_VVI to_PRP an_AT0 electricity_NN1 grid_NN1 in_PRP many_DT0 countries_NN2 —_PUN particularly_AV0 when_CJS factoring_VVG in_PRP installation_NN1 and_CJC lifetime_NN1 operating_NN1 expenses_NN2 ._SENT Accelerating_VVG the_AT0 speed_NN1 and_CJC scale_NN1 of_PRF their_DPS deployment_NN1 would_VM0 require_VVI new_AJ0 manufacturing_NN1 capacity_NN1 ,_PUN changes_NN2 to_PRP electricity_NN1 grids_NN2 and_CJC markets_NN2 ,_PUN and_CJC development_NN1 of_PRF more_DT0 advanced_AJ0 batteries_NN2 to_TO0 provide_VVI power_NN1 when_CJS there_EX0 is_VBZ no_AT0 sun_NN1 or_CJC wind_NN1 ._SENT 
•_PUN Nuclearandhydropowerareforecasttomaintain_NN1 ,_PUN at_PRP most_DT0 ,_PUN their_DPS current_AJ0 modest_AJ0 shares_NN2 of_PRF energy_NN1 supply_NN1 ._SENT Some_DT0 countries_NN2 are_VBB planning_VVG to_TO0 expand_VVI nuclear_AJ0 power_NN1 generation_NN1 ,_PUN but_CJC others_NN2 plan_VVB to_TO0 reduce_VVI it_PNP because_CJS of_PRF safety_NN1 concerns_NN2 and_CJC high_AJ0 costs_NN2 ._SENT The_AT0 development_NN1 of_PRF small_AJ0 modular_AJ0 nuclear_AJ0 reactors_NN2 may_VM0 lead_VVI to_PRP renewed_AJ0 expansion_NN1 ;_PUN given_AJ0 long_AJ0 lead_NN1 times_NN2 in_PRP production_NN1 ,_PUN any_DT0 notable_AJ0 increase_NN1 in_PRP capacity_NN1 would_VM0 occur_VVI during_PRP the_AT0 latter_DT0 part_NN1 of_PRF the_AT0 period_NN1 of_PRF this_DT0 estimate_NN1 ._SENT 
World_NN1 leaders_NN2 are_VBB increasingly_AV0 concerned_AJ0 that_CJT a_AT0 window_NN1 is_VBZ closing_VVG on_PRP the_AT0 opportunity_NN1 to_TO0 reduce_VVI emissions_NN2 before_PRP irreversible_AJ0 damage_NN1 to_PRP the_AT0 climate_NN1 occurs_VVZ ,_PUN and_CJC many_DT0 are_VBB responding_VVG to_PRP public_AJ0 and_CJC global_AJ0 pressure_NN1 to_TO0 act_VVI more_AV0 ambitiously_AV0 ._SENT A_AT0 growing_AJ0 number_NN1 of_PRF countries_NN2 are_VBB imposing_AJ0 or_CJC increasing_AJ0 carbon_NN1 taxes_NN2 to_TO0 discourage_VVI emissions_NN2 and_CJC increase_VVB the_AT0 cost_NN1 competitiveness_NN1 of_PRF clean_AJ0 energy_NN1 sources_NN2 and_CJC carbon_NN1 dioxide_NN1 removal_NN1 ._SENT In_PRP addition_NN1 ,_PUN private_AJ0 and_CJC public_AJ0 investment_NN1 in_PRP these_DT0 areas_NN2 is_VBZ rapidly_AV0 increasing_AJ0 ._SENT 
•_PUN By_PRP summer_NN1 2021_CRD more_AV0 than_CJS 90_CRD countries_NN2 —_PUN covering_VVG more_AV0 than_CJS 40_CRD percent_NN0 of_PRF global_AJ0 emissions_NN2 —_PUN had_VHD submitted_VVN updated_AJ0 NDCs_NN2 ._SENT Several_DT0 had_VHD pledged_VVN to_TO0 reach_VVI net_AJ0 zero_NN1 emissions_NN2 ,_PUN including_PRP Brazil_NP0 ,_PUN Chile_NP0 ,_PUN the_AT0 EU_NP0 ,_PUN Japan_NP0 ,_PUN South_NP0 Korea_NP0 ,_PUN New_NP0 Zealand_NP0 ,_PUN and_CJC the_AT0 United_NP0 Kingdom_NP0 by_PRP 2050_CRD ,_PUN and_CJC China_NP0 by_PRP 2060._CRD 
•_PUN In_PRP March_NP0 ,_PUN the_AT0 European_AJ0 Central_AJ0 Bank_NN1 announced_VVD plans_NN2 for_PRP new_AJ0 capital_NN1 requirements_NN2 for_PRP banks_NN2 that_CJT have_VHB high_AJ0 levels_NN2 of_PRF climate_NN1 risks_NN2 on_PRP their_DPS accounts_NN2 ,_PUN and_CJC in_PRP April_NP0 ,_PUN the_AT0 United_NP0 Kingdom_NP0 passed_VVD legislation_NN1 codifying_VVG its_DPS emissions_NN2 target_NN1 ._SENT In_PRP July_NP0 ,_PUN the_AT0 EU_NP0 unveiled_VVD its_DPS emissions_NN2 reduction_NN1 roadmap_NN1 ._SENT 
•_PUN However_AV0 ,_PUN fewothercountrieshaveenshrinedthese_AJ0 targets_NN2 into_PRP law_NN1 or_CJC have_VHB detailed_AJ0 plans_NN2 on_PRP how_AVQ to_TO0 get_VVI there_AV0 ._SENT For_PRP example_NN1 ,_PUN industry_NN1 analysts_NN2 estimate_VVB a_AT0 carbon_NN1 price_NN1 as_CJS high_AV0 as_CJS $_NN0 100_CRD per_PRP ton_NN1 would_VM0 be_VBI needed_VVN to_TO0 accelerate_VVI a_AT0 shift_NN1 to_TO0 clean_VVI energy_NN1 ._SENT In_PRP addition_NN1 ,_PUN we_PNP assess_VVB that_CJT some_DT0 countries_NN2 are_VBB using_VVG a_AT0 pledge_NN1 to_TO0 mask_VVI a_AT0 lack_NN1 of_PRF seriousness_NN1 ._SENT 
China_NP0 and_CJC India_NP0 will_VM0 play_VVI critical_AJ0 roles_NN2 in_PRP determining_VVG the_AT0 trajectory_NN1 of_PRF temperature_NN1 rise_NN1 ._SENT They_PNP are_VBB the_AT0 first-_AJ0 and_CJC fourth-largest_AJS emitters_NN2 ,_PUN respectively_AV0 ,_PUN and_CJC both_DT0 are_VBB growing_VVG their_DPS total_NN1 and_CJC per_PRP capita_NN1 emissions_NN2 ,_PUN whereas_CJS the_AT0 United_NP0 States_NP0 and_CJC EU_NP0 —_PUN as_CJS the_AT0 second-_ORD and_CJC third-_ORD largest_AJS —_PUN are_VBB declining_AJ0 ._SENT Both_AV0 China_NP0 and_CJC India_NP0 are_VBB incorporating_VVG more_AV0 renewable_AJ0 and_CJC low-carbon_AJ0 energy_NN1 sources_NN2 ,_PUN but_CJC several_DT0 factors_NN2 will_VM0 limit_VVI their_DPS displacement_NN1 of_PRF coal_NN1 ._SENT 
